268
FXUS61 KRNK 231837
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
237 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will stall across the Ohio Valley today and Friday,
resulting in multiple days with showers and thunderstorms over
the area. Then a low pressure system crossing the Great Lakes
will push a cold front through the Mid Atlantic region early
Tuesday. This will lead in drier and cooler weather for the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday...

Key messages:

   - Showers and storms throughout this afternoon
   - Less opportunity for showers Friday

Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are tracking through
southwest VA and northern NC currently. Today has been much
cloudier than yesterday, suppressing instability a bit. As a
result this may delay the more severe thunderstorm activity for
a while longer. However, the presence of a frontal boundary
across the area is allowing for more widespread shower coverage
than yesterday. Mesoanalysis shows stronger instability south of
the VA/NC state line, which would indicate the area of greatest
risk for wind damage from storms would be there. Several high-
res models tend to agree with this hypothesis. Nowhere in our
forecast area can be counted out for severe weather this
afternoon and evening though.

After things quiet down this evening, the aforementioned front
will remain stationary over the area. A small shortwave will
move near the front on Friday, continuing our daily pattern of
showers and storms. With less instability available, Friday`s
greatest concern will be heavy rain and flooding potential as we
have seen round after round of rainfall the past few days.

Temperatures will be fairly typical for late May, with highs in
the 70s to mid 80s, and lows in the 50s to low 60s. With all the
rain and a lackadaisical front, humidity will be high as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 205 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Points:

1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday
2. Areal coverage of storms increases Sunday
3. Well above normal temperatures.

A disturbance is expected to move over the region Friday evening.
Convection will wane with lose of heating, but outflow boundaries
may keep showers on-going overnight. On Saturday, the area will be
in the warm sector with diurnal scattered storms firing during the
afternoon and evening hours. As typical with summer convection,
storms will fade away through the overnight hours. Sunday looks to
be the most active day for severe weather as a cold front approaches
from the west. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, more
areal coverage of strong storms are possible.

PWATs through the period will run high (greater than 1.40 inches)
and with the wet antecedent soils, flooding will be possible with
stronger and/or slow moving storms. The severe weather threat each
afternoon and evening will primarily be damaging wind gusts.

Being in the warm sector for much of the forecast period, afternoon
temperatures will run around 10F warmer than normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Points:

1. A frontal passage with strong storm Monday
2. Primarily mountain showers and storms Tuesday and Wednesday.
3. Temperatures return to normal following the frontal passage Monday

A cold front is expected to move across the area on Memorial Day. A
line of strong convections will accompany this frontal passage.
Quieter weather is likely for the rest of the week, but can not rule
out a few showers and thunderstorms over the mountains Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoon.

Warmer than normal temperatures continue on Monday. Temperatures for
the rest of the week will drop back to normal levels following the
frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...


Convective allowing models have reasonably good agreement with
the timing of the thunderstorms today, showing the bulk of the
storms in the 19Z/3PM to 23Z/7PM time frame. Showers and storms
could last well after dark tonight though, especially in the
Piedmont and towards central VA.

Conditions will largely be VFR outside of any showers or storms.
MVFR vsby may result from heavy rain within showers and storms.
While prevailing winds will be from the southwest and west, they
will be light. A nearby thunderstorm could produce outflow that
would override the prevailing winds, and create erratic wind
directions and gusts.

Clouds will lift into the mid-levels safely in VFR range for
Friday morning.

Average confidence for ceiling, wind, and visibility

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Periods of showers and thunderstorms, especially each afternoon
and evening will continue through Monday. MVFR remain likely
with any of the thunderstorms.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...VFJ
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/VFJ