033
FXUS66 KSEW 052205
AFDSEW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
305 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure builds over the region today, bringing a
warming and drying trend to western Washington for the second
half of the week. The warmest temperatures are expected Friday and
Saturday. A weak shortwave moving across the area on Sunday may
bring slightly cooler temperatures and some showers to the
mountains. Temperatures then look to fall closer to normal by
early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...Decreasing cloud cover
across the region this afternoon with areas of scattered clouds as
temperatures warm. Temperatures are trending to near seasonal
normals today with the decreasing clouds. High pressure will
continue to build over the region through the second half of the
week, which will lead to the air mass steadily warming during each
of the next several days. At this point, Friday and Saturday look
to be the warmest days with most likely temperatures landing in
the lower 80s for the interior, roughly 10 or so degrees above
normal. This would reflect most minor HeatRisk, with some pockets
of moderate HeatRisk. While confidence remains high with this
pattern, it does seem unlikely (less than 10% chance) of seeing
temperature reaching daily record highs or warm enough to boost
the expected HeatRisk into a higher category. Ensemble guidance
continues to favor enough of a frontal system approaching by late
Saturday to prevent a longer duration of building heat, which is
another factor that will keep the HeatRisk from climbing higher.
That said, even with the warming air temperatures, it`s important
to note that local waterways remain cool so ensure that caution is
taken around and near rivers and streams.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A weak disturbance will
likely induce some increasing onshore flow as it passes into the
Pacific Northwest around Sunday. This will bring a return of
marine air in to the interior with some increasing cloud cover and
slightly cooler temperatures. Some shower chances can`t be ruled
out in the higher terrain of the Olympics and Cascades, but
significant rainfall is not expected. Ensemble guidance continues
to favor a ridge developing over the western U.S. early next week
which will generally bring warmer and drier conditions, but
passing disturbances will maintain at least some chances for
increased clouds and temperatures fluctuating back down closer to
normal values at times.              Cullen

&&

.AVIATION...Flow aloft is becoming zonal west-southwest as ridging
develops off the Pacific coast. All TAF sites are reporting VFR as
of this afternoon. Scattered mid-level VFR CIGs will burn off and
reveal a high cirrus/cirro-stratus deck in some areas this
evening and overnight. Slight chance exists for an onshore push to
bring some lower CIGs Thursday morning, but will be significantly
weaker than the push Wednesday morning. This may only affect
coastal terminals. Winds light out of the north at 4-8 kt.

KSEA...VFR CIGs expected through the period. Morning lower CIGs not
expected at this time (around a 5% chance of MVFR/IFR Thursday
morning). Winds out of the north 4-8 kt.

HPR

&&

.MARINE...Onshore flow continues with high pressure building off the
coast, and low pressure east of the Cascades. Winds have diminished
to light northerly winds. Seas remain lager over the coastal
waters with wave heights observed at 14 feet at 15 seconds. The
Grays Harbor Bar also remains rough. The small craft advisories
will continue through early Thursday morning. Seas will drop to 4
to 6 feet the remainder of the week, with a trough on Sunday
potentially bringing elevated seas in for the first part of next
week.

HPR

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Grays
     Harbor Bar.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for West
     Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters
     From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
     Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
     10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
     Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.

&&

$$