956
FXUS63 KSGF 212205
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
505 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms possible this evening...with an Enhanced (3 of
  5 level) risk over west central and central MO and a Slight
  Risk for much of the region southward to the Arkansas border.
  Hail to the size of baseballs and damaging wind gusts will be
  the primary concerns followed by tornadoes.

- Another round of severe weather is possible again Wednesday
  toward south-central Missouri with Slight (2 of 5 level) to
  Enhanced (3 of 5 level) risk. Hail to the size of golf balls
  will be the primary threat followed by damaging wind.

- Unsettled weather may persist through the end of this week and
  into Memorial Day weekend (daily 30-50% chances for showers
  and thunderstorms).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Band of cumulus congestus from west of the KC area southwest to
near KCNU on into north central OK marking the region where the
cap is eroding with TSRA development anticipated in the next 1-2
hours...propagating  southeastward through the evening in line
with the HREF.

With CAMS members ranging from discrete cells to at best a
broken line across much of the CWA concern remains very large
hail - baseball to softball...with MLCAPES expected to climb to
over 3000 J/KG with max heating and 0-6 KM shear around 50 knots
providing ample shear for supercells to initially form. The
front will likely overtake the dry line from reaching the CWA
but the potential for discrete supercells is expected based upon
the environment and CAMs. The question over time then remains
whether supercells congeal and or the frontal boundary becomes
the main forcing leading to a line later this evening over the
eastern Ozarks.

Models continue to advertise redevelop of TSRA Wednesday along
and a bit north of the frontal boundary that will sink to along
or a bit south of the Arkansas border overnight. Unlike storms
today which primarily will form within a band...storms on
Wednesday will be clustered from late morning into the
afternoon. With the front south of the border, the storms will
be elevated with enough shear for sufficient rotation and
instability for hail to the size of golf balls to be the primary
threat followed by winds of 60 to 70 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

A rather active pattern remains in the forecast with multiple
rounds of thunderstorms, some severe, and rainfall through the
holiday weekend. Both the CSU/CIPS and SPC output continues to
show this potential as well. As for temperatures for the
weekend, expect highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Thursday - Sunday: SPC has a Slight Risk of severe weather issued
for areas south and west of a line from Nevada to West Plains. A
shortwave trough will move through Thursday evening in addition to
an 850mb LLJ with widespread thunderstorms expected again. MUCAPE
shows values near 2500-3000 J/kg with sufficient shear and moisture
to produce thunderstorms. Some storms may be severe.

Friday there may be lingering showers and thunderstorms from
Thursday night that will slowly push east Friday morning. POPs start
out at 30-50% but decrease as they day goes on. Which means Friday
may be a brief break in the rainfall and storms.

Another shortwave arrives Saturday evening into Sunday with SPC
highlighting a 15-20% risk for severe weather on Sunday for areas
east of I-49. Models hint at more widespread thunderstorm activity,
but more details to come.

Monday - Tuesday: Another shortwave moves through Monday night into
Tuesday bringing an additional round of storms. Though, after
Tuesday, ridging begins to build into the area and gives us a much
needed break from severe weather/rain.

With multiple days of rainfall expected, forecast rainfall totals
show a widespread 1 to 2 inches of rain with localized higher
amounts possible. This may lead to localized flooding for areas that
have already seen ample rainfall or that flood easily.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 504 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

A cold front is moving east across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma
early this evening. A broken line of storms have developed along
the front and will continue to move east across the area through
the evening hours. A few isolated storms will also be possible
across far southern and south central Missouri early this
evening. IFR conditions will be possible with the storms on the
cold front along with gusty winds and large hail.

The storms will end from west to east this evening. South to
southwesterly winds will occur ahead of the front with
northwest to northerly winds developing tonight. Additional
storms will be possible across southern Missouri Wednesday
morning into the evening hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Runnels
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Wise