Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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257 FXUS63 KSGF 240517 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1217 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms move into the area Friday morning. Some may be severe with large hail and damaging winds. - If enough instability remains, additional strong to severe storms may develop Friday afternoon along and south of Interstate 44 with large hail and damaging winds. - Additional severe weather and heavy rain chances Saturday night into Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Short range forecast remains generally on track though timing has slowed with the system lifting into the Dakotas and associated trailing cold front advecting across the Plains. Through tonight - a warm front has progressed northward through the forecast area with a cap limiting convection from developing. With the shift of winds to the south, dew points have climbed into the middle 60s to near 70...with even more moisture streaming into the system as evident by the stratus on satellite. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the highly unstable and sheared environment across the Plains this afternoon into this evening...though questions on cold pool development advancing the arrival time of thunderstorms overnight vs storms moving well ahead of the line and losing their organization. CAM model soundings in agreement that MLCAPES above 3000 J/KG will be in place over southeast KS this evening though some disagreement on whether the cap will break until forcing from the approaching outflow arrives so there may be a few scattered thunderstorms from evening into the night before the main band of strong to severe storms arrives over southeast Kansas into western Missouri toward sunrise. This band of storms will likely weaken and then strengthen once once again increase in coverage and strengthen Friday afternoon over the eastern half of the forecast as the front works its way east across the forecast area. While uncapped, the atmosphere ahead of the convection will loose some of its instability thanks to warming mid level lapse rates. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 Southwesterly flow will resume as the western trough digs then advects eastward into the Plains Saturday. Progged soundings reveal an uncapped, highly unstable atmosphere. The veering profile lacks strong lower level winds at the present, though anticipate winds to strengthen as the surface low deepens rapidly over Kansas. Similar to the system tonight...the nocturnal elements may lead to severe threats diminishing and then redeveloping farther east on Sunday. Of concern with the Saturday night/Sunday system will be increasing precipital water leading to the potential for very heavy rainfall rates falling on moist soils from recent storms. A trailing shortwave will be monitored for the potential for showers Monday...otherwise the Holiday through midweek will be mild with highs in the 70s to near 80 and drier dew points. Dry weather will then prevail into midweek as a welcome surface high builds across the central US. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024 For the 06z TAFS, we remain capped across the area late this evening. A thunderstorm complex to the north should continue to track east and remain north of the area. We should remain dry for much of the overnight hours. An approaching frontal boundary from the west will move into eastern KS by 12z and may spark some convection early this morning after 11z at JLN. Cells will likely be more isolated or widely scattered initially, but should increase in coverage as we get into the mid to late morning and the instability increases out ahead of the front. Will be carrying prob30 groups for the 3 TAF sites but this may need to be bumped up to tempo groups in the 12z tafs later. Generally expecting VFR conditions outside of any convection, but we could get some MVFR and brief IFR within any convection that develops later. Some gusty winds out of the south will develop ahead of the front with winds switching to the northwest and becoming light behind the front late this afternoon and evening. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Runnels LONG TERM...Runnels AVIATION...Lindenberg