Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
620 FXUS63 KSGF 291103 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 603 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some low end rain chances this afternoon and evening(20-40%) over the southwest portion of the forecast area. - Much better chance for widespread rain(50-50%) arrives Friday into Saturday. - Additional rain chances (15-20%) linger through the remainder of the weekend with better chances of rain(30-50%) picking back up early next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery and upper level analysis show a trough over the Great Lakes region with northwest flow on the back side of the low across the area. Some upper ridging was occurring across the high plains, however some shortwave energy underneath the ridge was aiding in some convective development in the central and southern plains. Surface high pressure was over the area with a secondary cold front pushing into central MO. Temperatures were in the low to mid 60s with dew points in the mid to upper 50s across the forecast area. Today/Tonight: Upper level energy in the central and southern plains will slide east with some increasing moisture in the southwestern portion of the CWA during the day on the western side of the ridge axis. This may be enough for some afternoon and evening scattered convection to develop and some of the hi- res CAMS are suggesting this. Coverage should be scattered and mainly confined to the southwestern half of the CWA. Coverage should decrease throughout the evening. Highs today should reach the upper 70s to low 80s with lows tonight from the mid 50s to low 60s. Thursday: Upper ridging moves into the area with the surface ridge shifting east of the area and moisture increasing over more of the forecast area. Precipitation chances will mainly be confined to the western half of the CWA during the day (15-25%) with shortwave energy starting to move into the area from the west late in the day. Highs should reach the upper 70s to low 80s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Thursday night through Saturday: slow moving upper level shortwave will begin to push through the area. With a good Gulf moisture fetch, precipitable water values will be around 1.30" to 1.50" during this period which is around the 90th percentile. Instability and shear do not look overly impressive, but enough for some thunderstorms and plenty of synoptic scale lift for more widespread rainfall and the potential of heavy rain. We are in a marginal to slight chance for excessive rain with the better chances Friday into Saturday as the main upper level shortwave moves through. Highest rain totals during this period will be in the western CWA where 1-2" rain amounts will be possible. Further east, we are going with half inch to inch and a half amounts. Saturday night - Sunday: There will probably be a dry period behind this shortwave after it exits to the east, however there should be some quick moisture return during the day on Sunday. Sunday night - Tuesday: Rain chances return with additional upper level energy moving into the area. There are model differences with timing of this energy that still need to be ironed out, but we are still going with some rain chances during this time frame. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 601 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 For the 12z TAFS, some mid and high cloud cover today in VFR category. This afternoon some mid level shortwave energy will move into the area with some scattered showers/thunderstorms possible over the southwestern portion of the forecast area which will include the 3 TAF sites. Maintained prob30 group for now. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Lindenberg LONG TERM...Lindenberg AVIATION...Lindenberg