404
FXUS63 KSGF 290737
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
237 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some low end rain chances this afternoon and evening(20-40%)
  over the southwest portion of the forecast area.

- Much better chance for widespread rain(50-50%) arrives Friday
  into Saturday.

- Additional rain chances (15-20%) linger through the remainder
  of the weekend with better chances of rain(30-50%) picking
  back up early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show a trough over the Great Lakes
region with northwest flow on the back side of the low across
the area. Some upper ridging was occurring across the high
plains, however some shortwave energy underneath the ridge was
aiding in some convective development in the central and
southern plains. Surface high pressure was over the area with a
secondary cold front pushing into central MO. Temperatures were
in the low to mid 60s with dew points in the mid to upper 50s
across the forecast area.

Today/Tonight: Upper level energy in the central and southern
plains will slide east with some increasing moisture in the
southwestern portion of the CWA during the day on the western
side of the ridge axis. This may be enough for some afternoon
and evening scattered convection to develop and some of the hi-
res CAMS are suggesting this. Coverage should be scattered and
mainly confined to the southwestern half of the CWA. Coverage
should decrease throughout the evening. Highs today should reach
the upper 70s to low 80s with lows tonight from the mid 50s to
low 60s.

Thursday: Upper ridging moves into the area with the surface
ridge shifting east of the area and moisture increasing over
more of the forecast area. Precipitation chances will mainly be
confined to the western half of the CWA during the day (15-25%)
with shortwave energy starting to move into the area from the
west late in the day. Highs should reach the upper 70s to low
80s.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Thursday night through Saturday: slow moving upper level
shortwave will begin to push through the area. With a good Gulf
moisture fetch, precipitable water values will be around 1.30"
to 1.50" during this period which is around the 90th percentile.
Instability and shear do not look overly impressive, but enough
for some thunderstorms and plenty of synoptic scale lift for
more widespread rainfall and the potential of heavy rain. We are
in a marginal to slight chance for excessive rain with the
better chances Friday into Saturday as the main upper level
shortwave moves through. Highest rain totals during this period
will be in the western CWA where 1-2" rain amounts will be
possible. Further east, we are going with half inch to inch and
a half amounts.

Saturday night - Sunday: There will probably be a dry period
behind this shortwave after it exits to the east, however there
should be some quick moisture return during the day on Sunday.

Sunday night - Tuesday: Rain chances return with additional
upper level energy moving into the area. There are model
differences with timing of this energy that still need to be
ironed out, but we are still going with some rain chances during
this time frame.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

For the 06z TAFS, some shortwave energy underneath and upper
ridge will make it into the area later today with some
increasing moisture in the southwest portion of the forecast
area. Some hi-res models are bring some scattered convection
over the area this afternoon and early evening and have gone
with some prob30s for the TAFS in between 20z and 02z. Outside
of any convection, we are generally going with VFR conditions,
but may see some MVFR within any showers/storms that develop.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg