292
FXUS63 KSGF 050541
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1241 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 60-90% chance of thunderstorms tonight. Marginal risk for
  severe storms with a few storms producing damaging winds and
  hail to the size of quarters. Localized flooding and lightning
  are also concerns.

- Drier conditions Wednesday through Friday. Pattern change for
  the weekend may bring slightly cooler temps to the area.
  30-40% chance of rain intermittently throughout the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Today: Atmosphere is trying to destabilize this afternoon as low
pressure digs into the Central Plains and clouds clear the area.
Afternoon dewpoints are starting to reach the lower 70s across the
area. Models show a shortwave riding the base of the larger trough
this evening. This may help to initiative a few pop up/pulse-like
thunderstorms over our area before the front pushes through later
tonight. CAM guidance shows this occurring within the next couple of
hours with scattered showers over southern MO. SPC has a Slight Risk
for severe weather along and west of a line from Clinton Lake down
to Anderson, MO in McDonald co. Mesoscale analysis shows a bulls-eye
of 1000 to 2000 J/kg of CAPE with 25 to 30 kts of bulk shear
over far SW MO/NE OK with little to no CIN that could be a good
spot for storms to develop this afternoon. Models show lapse
rates over that area around 8 C/km, which could support severe
hail (1 inch). There is also plenty of moisture just north of
the warm front draped over northern OK for storms to initiative
off of as WAA increases. This is why the far SW MO region has
the best potential to see severe thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening. Storms that form in other areas of the CWA
will be more likely to be sub-severe.

Tonight: Cold front will make its way through north-central KS and
push eastward around midnight. As the surface front pushes east, it
will congeal into an MCS that will push through SE KS/NE OK/SW MO.
Main threats with this system for us will be a few strong
thunderstorms capable of producing isolated damaging outflow gusts
and quarter sized or smaller hail. Also can`t rule out locally heavy
rainfall with any of these storms. Model PWATs are about 1.5 to 1.8
inches ahead of the front which would be near our daily max for this
time of year. This means that the storms that move through the area
tonight, will most likely be efficient rainfall producers.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Thursday and Friday: Mid-level ridging moves over the area which
will lead to pleasant weather for the rest of the week. A secondary
front looks to move through the area on Thursday. Though, little to
no convection is expected as there won`t be sufficient moisture in
place. However, this front will reinforce a slightly drier airmass
as northwest flow aloft develops. This drier airmass will allow for
cooler mornings however afternoon highs still in the 80s. Precip
chances remain less than 20 percent these days.

The Weekend: Ensembles are coming into better agreement with the
overall pattern of the upper low across the Great Lakes and a ridge
out west. This places the area in northwest flow aloft which
typically allows for systems to slide southeast towards the area.
MCS season has begun and will be present this weekend. Model
guidance for this weekend show many weak mid-level perturbations
moving through the area. Confidence will increase as we get closer
however 30-50% rain chances are in place for the weekend. If this
occurs it would also keep temps cooler, perhaps in the 70s however
NBM temp spreads are still around 8 to 10 degrees. Those with
outdoor activities will need to stay up on the forecast for the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

A line of thunderstorms is currently moving through/towards the
TAF sites and will continue through 09z. MVFR ceilings will
likely develop for the morning hours with VFR conditions then
likely for the afternoon and evening. Northwest winds will occur
behind the storms and last through the TAF period.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Burchfield