Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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867 FXUS64 KSHV 291527 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1027 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1023 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Updates were rather minor this morning for the remainder of the day, involving some readjustment of pops mainly. Large MCV spinning across NE TX attm with large precip shield increasing in coverage and intensity across the Lower Toledo Bend and Sam Rayburn Country of WC LA and Deep East Texas, as well as across the Piney Woods of NE TX. For the update, followed the HREF very closely which appears to have the best handle on current convection. As we transition into the afternoon, look for storm coverage to begin increasing into NW LA as well as across SE OK and portions of SW AR with NE LA and SC AR likely the last areas to see precipitation. Thus, it would make sense that our eastern zones would see the best heating and the current forecast has a pretty good handle on this way of thinking, thus no changes were made to the temperature portion of the forecast. Update has already been sent. 13 && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday) Issued at 154 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Upper-level high pressure centered across Mexico will allow for west to northwest flow across the ArkLaTex today. At the surface, high pressure centered across the Great Lakes into the middle to lower Mississippi River Valleys will allow for weak southerly flow across the ArkLaTex. Ongoing convection across central Texas is the result of a weak disturbance riding southeast within the mean upper-flow aloft along remnant outflow boundaries from previous convection. There is some uncertainty amongst the models as to how this convection will evolve through the morning hours. Based on latest radar trends, any strong convection across central Texas through daybreak will likely shift southwest of the ArkLaTex. However, with the approach of the upper-level weakness, could see renewed convection develop later today across much of the ArkLaTex. With increased cloud cover and ample mixing and precipitation, temperatures this afternoon will average in the 80s. Another upper-level disturbance will shift southeast across Central Texas late Thursday afternoon and evening along and ahead of a surface dryline. Remnant dryline convection will be driven east into the ArkLaTex by an upper-level disturbance late tonight through daybreak Thursday. Most of this precipitation is expected to remain sub-severe but could support a marginally severe hail and damaging wind threat across portions of northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma. High temperatures on Thursday to average in the low to mid 80s. /05/ && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 154 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Upper-level ridge is forecast to remain parked across Mexico through the long-term period resulting in a persistent northwest flow pattern to prevail across the ArkLaTex. Cyclic impulses diving southeast within this pattern will support periods of convection through the period. Seems like models have a decent handle on predicting the frequency of convective episodes sweeping across the ArkLaTex to be almost daily. Where the uncertainty lies from each model run is timing and level of intensity for each event. For this forecast package, kept fairly decent rain chances each day with slightly cooler than average temperatures due to increased mixing and cloud cover. High temperatures to average in the low to mid 80s through the weekend with lows in the lower 70s. Additionally, will have to monitor rainfall totals through the period in the event routine heavy rainfall events could eventually pose a flooding risk. /05/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 For the 29/12Z TAF update, active weather, including VCTS, will keep MVFR vis/cigs (or lower) in the airspace after 30/06Z through the end of the period with light southeasterly winds. /16/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 85 71 85 71 / 60 50 70 30 MLU 88 68 85 69 / 60 50 70 30 DEQ 81 65 79 65 / 60 60 60 40 TXK 83 67 82 68 / 60 60 60 40 ELD 84 66 81 65 / 50 60 70 30 TYR 83 70 83 70 / 60 50 70 40 GGG 83 70 83 70 / 60 50 70 40 LFK 85 71 85 71 / 60 30 70 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...16