Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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060 FXUS64 KSHV 290557 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1257 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1005 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Much more stable conditions in the wake of widespread convection earlier today should yield relatively quiet evening and overnight period. Aside from some isolated convection possibly reaching our westernmost zones prior to daybreak, the remainder of the region is expected to be rain-free overnight. The rain-cooled air still in place from earlier today will allow for a mild and pleasant night with low temperatures ranging from the middle to upper 60s areawide. Based on these trends, this did require adjustments to the previous forecast to lower overnight minimums by a few degrees in most areas along with trimming back PoPs based on the forecast reasoning mentioned above. Otherwise, the forecast is on track. Updated text products have been issued. /19/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 Gotta love northwest flow season in the ArkLaTex. To say it`s been an active day severe thunderstorm wise is an understatement at we are finally beginning to see light at the end of the tunnel so to speak with the rain coming to an end across our far northwest zones. Still dealing with severe convection across our far southern zones but the best instability by far resides just to our south and thus Severe Thunderstorm Watch 371 will be allowed to expire without any additional extension necessary at 2 pm. For the remainder of the night, already seeing new convection developing across NW and NC OK attm and this combined with renewed convection expected across the Upper Red Basin of NW TX and SW OK promises to head our way late tonight. Not saying late night and early Wednesday Morning upstream convection will be as intense and expansive as what we witnessed this morning as the low level jet which ofter feeds these nocturnal convective systems does not appear to be as stout as what we saw this morning but an increase in storm coverage and intensity is forecast just upstream of our region late tonight and expect this to move into our far northwest zones after midnight towards daybreak on Wednesday. Remnant upper forcing should combine with daytime heating on Wednesday to support scattered to numerous storm coverage once again with storms on Wednesday likely dissipating Wed Night from west to east. Undercut temps tonight and shaved NBM temps on Wed given the forecast storm coverage. 13 && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 107 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 While the upper ridge across the Intermountain west does begin to move out into the Great Plains late Wed thru Thursday, the upper flow pattern remains fairly chaotic as disturbances will continue to move our way from the Upper and Middle Red River Valley. With plentiful moisture in place not to mention daytime heating not to mention nocturnal energy generated by an always active late May low level jet, these are the perfect ingredients for daytime and nighttime convection so kept pops at least in the high scattered variety most areas through at least Saturday. Beyond Sat, the medium range progs are split on just how active our pattern will be for Sunday and into early next week. Did back off pops slightly Sunday thru Tue, given this was the NBM trend but needless to say, we are stuck in a milder but very wet pattern through at least Saturday of this week. 13 && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024 For the 29/06Z TAF update, MVFR vis/cigs are expected through most of the period due to VCSH/VCTS development, low clouds and light easterly winds. /16/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 87 71 84 71 / 50 50 60 30 MLU 90 68 85 69 / 40 50 60 30 DEQ 82 64 78 65 / 50 60 50 40 TXK 85 67 81 68 / 50 60 60 40 ELD 85 65 80 65 / 50 60 60 30 TYR 84 70 83 70 / 70 50 60 40 GGG 85 70 83 69 / 60 50 60 40 LFK 87 70 85 71 / 60 30 70 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...13 LONG TERM....13 AVIATION...16