Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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775 FXUS64 KSHV 232017 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 317 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday Night) Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 An area of showers and thunderstorms is developing south of the Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex this afternoon and slowly tracking to the east. Based on the present environment, conditions look to deteriorate across the ArkLaTex this evening as this complex advances into the area. Similar storm behavior to yesterday is anticipated, where discrete cells may manage to develop early, eventually coalescing into an MCS-like feature as the event continues. The primary threats tonight will again be large hail transitioning to damaging winds, though an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out altogether. The longest-lasting precipitation overnight looks to be dissipating by near daybreak, making for mostly dry conditions to follow for most of the day Friday. The timing of these complexes of storms has remained a point of uncertainty through the week, thus the latest timing estimation ought to be taken with a grain of salt. That being said, the Friday evening convection looks to begin impacting the ArkLaTex after 00Z Saturday, principally north of US Hwy 84. Impacts again look to largely include damaging severe hail as well as gusty winds, Once again largely dissipating by daybreak Saturday. /26/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 316 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 As of this writing, the daytime hours Saturday look to largely be dry. As a more robust threat for severe weather takes shape to our west and north, impacts may manage to graze the northernmost zones of the ArkLaTex, primarily along and north of the I-30 corridor, and mostly likely following the pattern of recent days with impacts beginning after 00Z Sunday, continuing through the night and coming to an end by Sunday morning. Sunday and Monday will see a continuation of this timing pattern, as the morning and afternoon will likely be dry, with the best chances for some scattered showers and storms along our northeast fringes near or after sundown, with more widespread impacts possible Monday afternoon and overnight with the frontal passage. The weekend will see persistent southerly flow reinforce the warming trend experienced this week, with widespread highs in the low 90s across the region and an increase in highs climbing into the middle 90s, in concert with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, these will make for uncomfortable to oppressive humidity for portions of the region before a regime change finally takes effect. Said pattern shift looks to manifest during the day Monday, as the upper level troughing associated with the surface boundary finally gets nudged north and east by a building ridge out of the west. This transitional pattern will allow for northwesterly flow to return area lows to the 60s and highs to the 80s through at least the middle of next week, followed by a fairly quick return to the 90s by the end of this extended forecast period, with mostly dry conditions through Tuesday and Wednesday and the next notable chance of rainfall arriving before dawn next Thursday. /26/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 104 PM CDT Thu May 23 2024 MVFR cigs have recently begun to lift early this afternoon across much of E TX/N LA, although these cigs will persist through at least mid afternoon across SW AR, near a residual mesoscale bndry leftover from the early morning convection extending from extreme SE OK into Srn AR. VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere this afternoon and evening, with a extensive cu field accompanied by elevated cigs from blowoff with the convection ongoing across Cntrl TX. The sfc bndry is expected to slowly begin to return back N and eventually wash out across SW AR this afternoon, but could provide focus of isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across SW AR, mainly N of the TXK/ELD terminals. Will have to await the arrival of a shortwave trough over W TX, which will traverse E across the state this afternoon and should enhance scattered convection development across Cntrl TX, which should gradually spread E into E TX by mid and late afternoon. Have delayed mention of VCTS for the area terminals (except for TYR/GGG), with the potentially more organized convection waiting until early to mid evening before affecting the SW AR/N LA terminals. Still unsure as to the extent of convection, but the gradual expectation is for the convection to diminish from W to E later this evening/overnight. The convection should also delay the onset of MVFR cig development, but should set in at LFK shortly after 06Z, and the remaining terminals after 09Z. Gradual improvement is expected through mid-morning, before cigs begin to lift and eventually return to VFR by the end of the 18Z TAF period. SSE winds 6-10kts will continue this afternoon and tonight. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 73 93 74 93 / 40 0 30 0 MLU 71 93 72 93 / 50 0 20 10 DEQ 66 86 68 87 / 70 10 40 10 TXK 70 90 71 90 / 70 10 50 10 ELD 67 90 69 90 / 50 10 40 10 TYR 72 92 72 93 / 40 10 30 0 GGG 71 92 71 92 / 40 10 30 0 LFK 75 94 73 95 / 10 0 10 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...15