Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
332 FXUS64 KSHV 190552 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1252 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 923 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Surface and upper-level ridge across the region to maintain stable conditions overnight. With mostly clear skies, temperatures are forecast to fall into the low to mid 60s. A stagnant airmass characterized by light winds and subsidence aloft may lead to unhealthy air quality conditions across urban areas along I-20 in east Texas on Sunday. Therefore, an Ozone Action Day is in Effect for Sunday. Otherwise, current forecast is on track. No update needed at this time. /05/ && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 A field of fair weather cumulus clouds this afternoon will begin to quickly dissipate around sunset this evening as high pressure at the sfc continues to dominate. Similar to last night, winds will be light and variable to near calm under mostly clear skies. Likewise, this set-up will be conducive for patchy fog development overnight with low temperatures ranging through the 60s to near 70 degrees. Another warm day will follow on Sunday as light SE flow returns in the wake of advancing high pressure. Temperatures will likely run a few degrees warmer on Sunday compared to today with mostly locations reaching into the lower 90s under a field of afternoon cumulus once again. With a light SE breeze expected to persist overnight, low temperatures will only fall back into the mid and upper 60s to lower 70s. /19/ && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 150 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 The warming trend will continue through early next week with an upper-level ridge building across much of the southern and eastern CONUS. The ridge will help to deflect any convection to our north through at least Tuesday as daily high temperatures push into the lower to mid 90s across much of the region except for our extreme northern zones which may remain in the upper 80s. Overnight lows will also trend muggy and warmer as well due to the prevailing southerly flow and increasing Gulf moisture through the first half of the week. By Tuesday night into Wednesday, the upper-level ridge will shift farther east across the SE CONUS and Mid-Atlantic states. This will allow for an upper-level trough shifting out of the Rockies into the mid-section of the country to push a cold front southward into our northern zones by mid to late week with increasing rain chances during this timeframe. In fact, a shortwave advancing in the SW flow pattern late Thursday into early Friday may provide enough forcing for some strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening into early Friday morning as highlighted in the SPC Day 6 convective outlook. We will continue to monitor this possibility over the coming days, but at a minimum expect higher rain chances for the middle to latter part of next week along with slightly milder temperatures. /19/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Wet soils combined with light and variable winds will result in patchy fog and scattered instances of MVFR/IFR flight conditions early in the period. Any fog that develops should mix out between 19/12z-19/14z. Beyond then, VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals for the rest of the period with a scattered cu field likely during the daytime hours. CN && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 72 93 74 93 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 69 91 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 66 90 69 88 / 0 0 0 10 TXK 70 92 72 92 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 68 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 70 90 72 91 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 70 90 71 91 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 69 91 71 92 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....19 AVIATION...09