992
FXUS64 KSHV 040252
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
952 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Another round in what has been a daily occurrence of MCS-driven
convection across the ArkLaTex is ongoing as of the 02Z hour this
evening, with the first complex of storms nearly departing the sHV
CWA to the southeast, while a new complex gaining intensity is
pushing out of east Texas towards the Shreveport-Bossier metro and
areas south, looking to bring destructive winds, frequent
lightning and more torrential rainfall. Severe Thunderstorm Watch
385 has been extended through midnight to include counties and
parishes in the path of this secondary complex.

On top of the convective hazards, ongoing flash flooding poses a
significant concern, with numerous roads impassable resulting in
high water rescues across the ArkLaTex.Additional rainfall will
only exacerbate this threat, with additional Flash Flood Warnings
likely.

Short term high resolution models continue to indicate the next
MCS developing overnight across central and eastern Oklahoma and
tracking south by southeast, bringing impacting to the northwest
zones of the ArkLaTex possibly as soon as the pre-dawn hours, with
impacts continuing and becoming more widespread to the south and
east across the ArkLaTex into the morning hours.

/26/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Active weather will continue to impact the Four State Region with
yet another round of severe thunderstorms possible through the
evening. This is due to an ongoing synoptic setup (ridging to our
west, troughing to our northeast) allowing for northwesterly flow
to continue channeling disturbances across the Southern Great
Plains into the Four State Region. Including the latest round
expected to arrive through this evening into the night. Given the
conducive enough atmosphere, the SPC has accordingly issued a new
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8PM CDT. Convection associated
with this disturbance will diminish by tomorrow morning and
temperature maximums/minimums will remain in the lower 90s/low-to-
mid 70s, respectively. /16/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A fairly active weather pattern will continue through the rest of
the week into the weekend across the Four State Region. The
aforementioned synoptic setup will not change much until ridging
across the Four Corners/West Texas builds eastward into our area
by the weekend. Until then, additional MCSs cannot be ruled out
and are notoriously tricky to catch in their initiation, speed,
and intensity by high-resolution guidance, reducing ideal forecast
certainty. That said, the best windows for more activity will be
on Wednesday and later this weekend as a frontal boundary somewhat
interrupts the best environment for convection between those two
times. Temperature maximums/minimums will remain near-to-above
normal in the lower 90s/mid-70s, respectively. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A large NE to SW convective complex continues to push SSE across
NE TX/Srn AR, and will affect the I-20 terminals in E TX/N LA between
00-04Z, resulting in gusty winds to 50kts, reduced vsbys, low
MVFR cigs, and extreme turbulence. These storms may eventually
reach LFK as well, but have lower confidence in this occurring,
although some tempo thunder was included here as well from mid to
late evening. In wake of the convection, VFR conditions will
return, and should remain VFR with elevated cigs through the
overnight hours over much of the region. Some MVFR cigs may
develop/affect LFK if the convection does not push through this
area later this evening. However, another thunderstorm complex may
develop overnight over Ern/SE OK, and spread SE into NE TX/SW
AR/N LA by/after 12Z Tuesday, affecting the area terminals through
the morning before diminishing by midday/early afternoon. In its
wake, VFR conditions will return, with elevated convective debris
lingering through the afternoon, with a scattered cu field
returning with diurnal heating as well. SSE winds 5-10kts, except
gusty in/near the convection, will become more Srly 9-12kts in
wake of the second round of convection Tuesday morning/afternoon.
/15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  90  76  91 /  90  30  10  40
MLU  72  89  73  90 /  90  40  10  50
DEQ  68  85  70  88 /  50  30  30  30
TXK  71  89  72  88 /  40  30  20  40
ELD  69  87  71  87 /  60  40  10  50
TYR  73  90  75  90 /  50  20  10  30
GGG  71  89  74  89 /  80  30  10  40
LFK  74  91  76  93 /  80  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...15