676
FXUS64 KSHV 030603
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
103 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The threat for severe weather has ended for Toledo Bend Country
and our LA Parishes, SVR watch 380 is expired a little early.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Thunderstorms continue from Lufkin to Alexandra and under the
upper low comma head near Monroe, but the threat for any further
severe activity other than lightning has weakened and moved out
of our area. This update removes the headlines and no other
changes are needed at this time. /24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday afternoon through next Saturday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Monday afternoon through the end of the period...

Another severe risk will cover the Ark-La-Tex Monday afternoon as a
Slight Risk has been drawn up across almost all of the SHV
responsible counties and parishes. Quick atmospheric recovery,
along with a persistent NW flow regime, will once again support
the initiation of thunderstorms northwest of the FA, that may
evolve into another bowing MCS, developing a strong cold pool, and
ultimately work into the Four State Region through the mid to
late afternoon and evening of Monday. Model agreement in the short
run is something to take away here as guidance has struggled with
convective initiation and evolution of recent bowing MCS events
over the last week. That being said, main concern here will be the
threat of damaging wind, hail and the chance for a tornado or
two.

Looking beyond Monday, the pattern continues to suggest that NW flow
will hang around through about mid-week as upper ridging builds to
the west across the Four Corners. The subtle influence of the ridge
however may be enough to support a daily increase in MaxT`s as
highs approach the middle 90`s by the end of the period before a
progged frontal passage stops temps from climbing any higher.
Still some uncertainty in the long range on just how much of an
impact the front will bring, but for now it remains something to
look forward to. At the same time, given the NW flow pattern, can
not rule out additional long track bowing segments through the
week. This pattern is one of uncertainty, and something to take
day to day.

RK

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

For the 03/06Z TAF period, convection continues to affect LFK/MLU
early this morning with reduced cigs/vsbys associated with these
SHRA/TSRA. This convection will eventually exit our airspace over
the next few hours, but another round of SHRA/TSRA is expected on
Monday afternoon and evening. In the meantime, low stratus cigs
will return later this morning and continue through the first half
of the TAF period before gradually improving back the VFR closer
to midday just as scattered convection begins to redevelop into
the afternoon. For now, have only included VCTS in the TAFs with
some uncertainty on exactly how early in the afternoon convection
will fire. Otherwise, look for winds to maintain a primary south
component between 5-15 kts with higher gusts invof of convection.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  76  91  75 /  30  10  20  10
MLU  89  73  90  74 /  20  10  20  10
DEQ  84  70  87  71 /  40  20  10  30
TXK  88  72  90  73 /  40  20  10  20
ELD  87  71  89  70 /  40  10  10  10
TYR  88  74  92  74 /  30  20  10  10
GGG  88  74  90  74 /  30  10  10  10
LFK  90  74  91  75 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...19