Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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999 FXUS64 KSHV 101124 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 624 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The early morning sfc analysis indicates a weak sfc front continuing to drift S into extreme NE TX and Srn AR, extending from just S of a SLR, to OSA/ATA to along the Srn AR/N LA border as of 07Z. This front is best reflected with the NE wind shifts at the various stations across these areas, although the drier air still lags the front a ways over SE OK into Cntrl AR as noted per the latest sfc theta-e analysis. The front remains progged to continue drifting S through the remainder of E TX/N LA this morning before becoming increasingly diffuse by midday as it exits the region, with drier air eventually backdooring SW into SW AR/SE OK by late morning and especially during the afternoon. The morning satellite imagery and sfc obs depicts areas of stratus/stratocu developing near and behind the front over SW AR into extreme NE TX/SE OK, which should continue to gradually spill SSW behind the front through the remainder of the morning before lifting. The increasing cloud cover will result in cooler temps than what have been observed the last several days, with max temps returning to if not a touch below normal across the region, especially N of I-20. Isolated convection that had drifted S into Nrn McCurtain County OK and the Nrn sections of SW AR Sunday afternoon along the front diminished shortly after midnight this morning, but the mosaic radar imagery indicates than renewed development has occurred over Sevier/Howard Counties in SW AR behind the front along the attendant W-E H850-500 trough axis, with additional isolated to widely scattered convection development expected to persist through the morning/shift SSE as this elevated bndry drifts slowly S into NE TX to along the AR/LA border through midday. The various hi-res progs are not very bullish with the extent of convection development today with this bndry until it shifts S of the I-20 corridor of E TX/N LA, where heating/instability will be maximized. This is where low/mid chance pops were confined this afternoon, with a gradual decrease in slight chance pops across SE OK/SW AR later this morning. Isolated convection may linger this evening over the SW sections of E TX S of I-20, until the drier air is able to backdoor farther SW over this area. Thus, a more noticeable cooling of min temps is expected tonight over much of the region as dewpoints fall into the 60s as the remnants of the weak front becomes stationary from the Middle Red River Valley SE into ECntrl and SE TX/S LA. Our attention will then turn to the WNW as the weak upper low over Cntrl AZ drifts E into the TX Panhandle this evening/overnight as it begins to open up, and eventually begin to drift SE through WCntrl and into N TX Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. The proximity of the stationary front just to our W along with the potential for some disturbed flow aloft may yield isolated afternoon convection Tuesday over the SW sections of E TX, where slight chance pops were inserted over the drier NBM. Despite the drier air, strong insolation should result in seasonal temps Tuesday afternoon, before falling nicely in the drier air Tuesday night as any isolated convection diminishes/becomes more focused farther W over the Hill Country. 15 && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 324 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 With the progs having trended a bit farther W with the dry air entrainment into ECntrl TX, much of the convection associated with the SE diving opening trough should remain concentrated just W of the region Wednesday over Cntrl and S TX, although this will need to be watched closely in future forecasts as at least isolated convection may still meander into the SW sections of E TX S of I-20. The trough is expected to near/move off the TX coast Wednesday night, with upper ridging centered over Nrn old MX into the Four Corners Region expected to expand E across the Srn Plains/Ozarks Thursday and into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley Friday. Thus, even hotter (above normal) temps will return to the region by late week into the upcoming weekend, as the ridge builds farther E over the region into the Lower Ohio/TN Valleys and the SE CONUS. Sfc ridging will also remain prevalent over the area through late week into the first half of the weekend, keeping the Gulf shut off and allowing for better mixing of dewpoints and thus, lower heat indices near or less than 100 degrees. The end of the forecast period could be interesting as some consensus in the medium range progs suggest the center of the ridge building farther E across much of the E Coast Sunday/Monday, allowing for a more active seabreeze penetrating inland from the coast under the deepening Srly flow. This may be exasperated by the potential by a developing tropical wave or inverted trough aloft that will shift N inland across the coast and into the region. Should this occur, convection would become more enhanced over Cntrl/NE LA Sunday afternoon and areawide Monday. However, confidence remains low with the details and timing this far out as the progs have been changing solutions daily with this all along the Gulf coast. But should this verify, this should result in cooler temps, higher RH`s, but also a return to some wetting rains following a 10+ day period of hot temps/drying in wake of our parade of MCS`s that ended around midweek last week. 15 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024 For the 10/012Z TAFs, scattered storms are redeveloping in extreme southeast Oklahoma and southwest Arkansas, moving south along a surface boundary. A slight chance of thunder remains for area airspace along and north of the Interstate 20 corridor, spreading further south during the late morning and into the afternoon. CIGs are increasing in coverage and have descended to lower VFR and MVFR heights as daybreak approaches, remaining at or near these heights through much of the day. Localized visibility reductions are possible with heavier showers and storms. Light and variable winds will assume a more northeasterly course, increasing to speeds of 5 to 10 kts with locally higher gusts possible. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 89 69 91 68 / 20 0 0 0 MLU 87 65 88 63 / 20 0 0 0 DEQ 85 62 87 62 / 20 0 0 0 TXK 86 64 89 64 / 20 0 0 0 ELD 85 62 87 61 / 20 0 0 0 TYR 87 68 88 68 / 20 20 20 10 GGG 87 67 89 67 / 20 10 10 10 LFK 90 71 90 69 / 40 20 20 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...26