Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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661 FXUS64 KSHV 071557 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1057 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 1055 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 No update is needed to the overnight forecast package at this time. /44/ && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 A broad upper level high over west Texas this morning will continue nudging is associated upper level ridging eastward today, serving reinforce the dry and hot pattern which defined Thursday. Based on the performance of yesterday`s highs compared to forecast models, have elected to trend 2-3 degrees warmer than NBM guidance for this afternoon, putting the ArkLaTex firmly in the middle 90s with a few sites climbing closer to the upper 90s. While such air temperatures look likely, dew points look to stay in the upper 60s, thus heat products should not be necessary at this time. However, apparent temperatures may still briefly reach the triple digits, and sensitive and vulnerable groups would do well to exercise caution in regards to outdoor exposure. GFS guidance paints the upper level high as being directly overhead Saturday morning and drifting south and east over the Gulf Coast quickly. Stubborn dew points indicate that even with adequate clearing, overnight lows will drop no lower than the lower 70s east to upper 60s west. Ridging will still be very much in play, but the precise extremity of afternoon temperatures is more uncertain and will hinge on the position of the ridge, thus carrying NBM guidance for the time being. Another afternoon of middle 90s looks very much in store, while dry conditions abound across the Four State Region. Ambient flow will become more southerly into the weekend, raising dew points into the 70s on a more widespread scale. Apparent temperatures will still be below advisory criteria, but afternoon conditions may become increasingly uncomfortable. /26/ && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Friday) Issued at 334 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 Sunday will see the beginning of a short-lived regime change for the ArkLaTex, namely a break to the dry and hot pattern which closes out this week. Before this change fully takes effect, another afternoon of 90s is to be expected, with building clouds from the northwest. Our upper level high will make tracks and rapidly progress east, making way for a deepening low over the Great Lakes region to swing its attendant trough over the midwest and into the central and southern Plains. As of this writing, a consensus of model guidance places the time of arrival of showers and storms to our northernmost zones possibly as soon as Sunday afternoon, through some individual constituent models depict a more gradual trajectory and do not introduce rainfall until Monday morning. Thus, watching the end of the weekend and beginning of the new work week for our next substantive chance of rainfall, beginning from the northwest and trekking southeast to cover the entire Four State Region into the day Monday. This initial round looks to diminish late Monday, only to be reinforced by a secondary wave continuing convective activity into the morning and afternoon Tuesday. This system will be paid close attention in coming forecast cycles for developments in timing solutions, as well as the possibility of severe weather and flash flooding, which much of the region remains vulnerable to. After the upper level trough responsible for the early week rainfall advances to the east, the ArkLaTex looks to enter a more classic summertime pattern, with mostly dry conditions through the night and morning, with rounds of what is most likely sea breeze convection pushing north into our southernmost zones of east texas and north Louisiana during the afternoon and evening. Rainfall early in the week will finally break the 90 degree tend, with highs in the 80s expected, gradually warming back towards the 90s by the end of this extended forecast period, with lows dropping into the 60s before climbing back into the 70s throughout. /26/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Fri Jun 7 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the 07/12Z TAF period. Extensive areas of AC cigs have developed/spread S across much of E TX/portions of SW AR and NW LA, and will persist through much of the morning before scattering out by midday through the afternoon. SKC will return areawide by 00Z Saturday, and persist through the remainder of the TAF period. ESE winds 4-6kts today will become SSE 5kts or less after 00Z. /15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 97 74 96 75 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 93 66 95 71 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 91 68 92 70 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 95 72 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 93 68 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 96 73 93 72 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 95 72 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 97 72 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...15