973
FXUS64 KSHV 281656
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1156 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 953 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Updates delayed this morning than it probably should have been
given the very active weather ongoing so needless to say, but
changes to the forecast are widespread and include increasing pops
and lowering temperatures. Uncertain as to if these storms
currently near and south of the I-20 Corridor in NE TX will
sustain themselves into NW LA but storm coverage should increase
nonetheless even if intensity drops off which it should.

No other changes attm...13.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

A weak frontal boundary lingering across north-central and
northeast Texas has been the trigger for convection across
the Red River Valley during these early morning hours. This area
will be the source region for continued convective initiation
through the remainder of the overnight hours. Ongoing storms near
daybreak will force an outflow boundary southeast across the
ArkLaTex later today.

Conditions across the ArkLaTex are primed to support strong to
severe thunderstorms along the outflow boundary today. The
combination of rich low-level moisture with dewpoints in the lower
70s and an upper-disturbance translating southeast within a
northwest flow pattern will support deep convection ultimately
leading to the potential for an MCS that will generate damaging
winds and large hail along with an isolated tornado threat across
the ArkLaTex. There is some uncertainty associated with type and
intensity of convection due to timing of the progression of the
outflow boundary. Should the outflow boundary race across the
region early in the day, MCS development may be reduced. However,
should the outflow boundary move through later in the day,
diurnal heating will play a role in further destabilizing an
already unstable airmass across the region ahead of the boundary
producing a heightened severe threat.

Convection to linger into the evening hours as fairly amplified
low-level trough lingers across the northern gulf coast. Overnight
low temperatures are forecast to fall into the 60s.

Synoptic pattern to remain fairly stagnant through Wednesday as
low to mid-level trough remains parked across the region in the
vicinity of the frontal boundary resulting in an unsettled weather
pattern characterized by decent rain chances areawide. High
temperatures are forecast to fall into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
/05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 125 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

An upper trough swinging east across the central CONUS along the
northern periphery of an upper-ridge across Mexico will allow for
an unsettled weather pattern across the ArkLaTex on Friday.
Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage early Friday
morning, persisting through much of the day. A weak upper-low may
deepen across south Arkansas on Friday night allowing for storms
to possibly increase in intensity allowing for an isolated severe
thunderstorms and heavy rain threat across Arkansas.

Conditions to improve on Saturday as upper-trough shifts east
into Mississippi and Alabama and ridging rebuilds across the
region. However, diurnally driven convection remains possible
along a lingering frontal boundary.

Frontal boundary to remain in place across the ArkLaTex through
Saturday, maintaining increased rain chances through the early
part of the weekend. Front is forecast to lift north on Sunday
allowing for improved conditions late in the weekend into early
next week.

Temperatures through the long-term period to remain fairly
consistent with highs in the 80s and lows around 70. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1144 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

An active pattern is ongoing across the airspace this morning as
multiple MCS arrangements move east. This has impacted much of
the east Texas terminals with +TSRA conditions, while a mix of
SHRA and VCTS extend north and east across the Louisiana and
Arkansas terminals.

Given the meso focused environment of the dual MCS presentation,
following the passing of the second complex close to 18z,
guidance, cross section analysis, and regional satellite imagery
do point towards some scattering of the area clouds and even the
chance for brief SKC for some terminals. This has been noticed
west of the DFW metro, and if the complex can continue to remain
progressive, some clearing, even if brief, appears in the cards.
That being said, due to lack of confidence in forecast solutions
up to this point, have elected to keep some cloud debris locally
across the terminals this evening and overnight, ahead of a
return to some BKN conditions by mid morning. AMD`s will be issued
if changes are needed.

RK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  82  69  84 /  40  50  30  50
MLU  69  82  67  84 /  20  40  30  40
DEQ  64  80  64  80 /  30  50  30  40
TXK  67  82  67  83 /  30  50  30  40
ELD  65  79  64  82 /  30  50  30  40
TYR  69  83  69  84 /  40  60  30  50
GGG  69  82  68  84 /  40  50  30  50
LFK  72  84  70  85 /  30  60  20  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...53