Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 291121
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
621 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.AVIATION...
Scattered -SHRA/-TSRA have diminished and VFR-LIFR CIGS remains
in its wake. Fog may develop shortly after daybreak as hinted at
by latest metar ob reports of 6SM and 7SM at ktxk and ktyr
respectively. Light northerly /and at time variable/ winds will
persist today before veering to the south overnight. Any lingering
fog will scour out by mid-late morning whilst cloud decks will be
slow to improve to VFR-MVFR criteria during the aforementioned
time-frame. The lull in precipitation will be short-lived if a
few breaks in the cloud cover can give way to daytime
destabilization and thus promote the development of -SHRA/-TSRA
once again by this afternoon. Coverage is anticipated to be less
than recent days, but is expected to impact kshv, ktyr, kggg and
klfk where the remaining terminals may be more of a close call
/VCSH or VCTS/. Have therefore tried to insert best timing of
precip either with a prevailing mention or a TEMPO group.
Overnight, CIGS and VIS will once again deteriorate to MVFR-IFR
and VFR-MVFR respectively.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 304 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Only some sct shwrs left behind from Sunday`s convection. Stalled
boundary difficult to discern, but looks to be roughly located
along a line from Palestine TX to Arkadelphia AR. Split jet
pattern aloft will continue to interact with this boundary over
the next several days, which will produce multiple rounds of
convection, especially when enhanced by daytime heating. While
widespread severe storms are not expected, cannot rule out a few
severe storms today and/or during the entire fcst pd.

Upper flow to become even more unsettled by late in the work week,
as an upper low moves into the TX Panhandle. Coverage of
convection may be more widespread Thursday through the weekend as
the low slowly moves ewd into our region. In addition, although
very uncertain, severe storms may be possible due to the increased
upper level dynamics associated with the upper low.

Temp fcst this pd may prove to be tricky. With cloud cover and at
least sct convection present for much of the week, temps overall
should be limited to the lower to mid 80s. However, peeks of sun
will be possible, and these could send our temps rocketing towards
90 degrees in some locations. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  67  83  67 /  50  30  40  20
MLU  83  67  81  66 /  60  40  50  20
DEQ  85  62  87  63 /  10  10  20  20
TXK  83  64  85  66 /  20  10  20  20
ELD  83  66  84  65 /  50  20  40  20
TYR  82  66  84  66 /  40  20  30  20
GGG  81  66  84  66 /  50  20  30  20
LFK  80  68  83  68 /  60  40  40  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/12


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