621
FXUS64 KSHV 270808
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
308 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Convergence ahead of an approaching frontal boundary within an
airmass rich in moisture has maintained potentially severe convection
through the early morning hours. With convection moving out of
the ongoing Tornado Watch 329 area at this time, went ahead and
cancelled the watch slightly early with no need to reissue
downstream.

Cold front to push through much of the region today bringing
lower dewpoints areawide. However, portions of Deep East Texas may
not experience the benefits of the drier air before the time of
peak heating when temperatures approach the mid to upper 90s. The
combination of hot temperatures and high relative humidity values
will result in heat index values around 105 degrees across the
lakes region of Deep East Texas. Therefore, a Heat Advisory has
been issued for these areas. Otherwise, the remainder of the
region should experience high temperatures inn the lower to middle
90s.

A weak mid-level disturbance translating east across the region
may allow for a few stray showers and thunderstorms across mainly
northeast Texas this evening into the overnight hours. Otherwise,
mainly dry conditions to prevail with lows ranging from the mid
60s across the lower 70s.

Upper-level across Mexico to allow for northwest flow across the
region on Tuesday. A disturbance translating southeast within the
overall flow regime will allow for a round of convection on
Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to climb into the mid
80s to lower 90s. /05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

An unsettled pattern will persist through the long-term period as
a series of mesoscale features influence ongoing episodes of
scattered convection each day. From Wednesday through late-week
the main focus for convection will be a lingering latitudinally
oriented frontal boundary across the northern gulf coast that will
eventually lift north as a warm front during the weekend.
Convection along the boundary will be driven by mesoscale
disturbances within the upper-flow pattern. To cover convective
uncertainty through the long-term period, went with an overall
broad-brush approach of periodic scattered pops through the
period. Additionally, within a northwest flow pattern this time of
year, it is possible for some strong storms to develop during
higher pop episodes at times of greatest diurnal heating and
instability.

Temperatures through the long-term period to range from highs in
the 80s to lows in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees each day. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

For the 27/06Z TAF update, MVFR vis/cigs will continue through
27/16Z before gradual improvement to VFR under light winds as
frontal passage continues across the area. /16/
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  74  91  71 /  10  10  30  30
MLU  95  70  93  69 /  10  10  20  20
DEQ  93  64  87  64 /   0  10  30  40
TXK  94  69  89  67 /   0  10  30  40
ELD  93  67  90  65 /   0  10  20  20
TYR  95  73  90  69 /  10  10  40  40
GGG  95  71  90  69 /  10  10  30  40
LFK  96  75  93  72 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...24