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FXUS64 KSHV 020555
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1255 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 938 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Complex of showers and thunderstorms that produced widespread wind
damage earlier this afternoon and evening has weakened
significantly over Northeast and North Central Louisiana. Latest
mesoanalysis indicates instability has rapidly decreased to
between 500-1500 J/kg. In addition, the perturbation aloft that
provided forcing for these storms should also move east and exit
the area within the next few hours. However, a few isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms cannot be ruled out through the
remainder of tonight and into early Sunday morning. Additional
chances for severe weather should be low tonight and PoPs will
become increasingly more confined to Northeast and North Central
Louisiana.

PoPs for the rest of tonight were updated to reflect current
thinking as mentioned above. In addition, the rain helped to cool
temperatures very quickly in some areas. Thus, some minor edits
were made to the hourly temperature grids and overnight low
temperature forecast for tonight.

Updated text products have been sent.

CN

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Cumulus field continues to increase this afternoon across the Four
State Region as diurnally driven sfc instability evolves ahead of
expected showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. Upper
forcing, as a result of a shortwave trough axis, is working east
into the Ark-La-Tex and will do so through the evening. The combo
of the aforementioned shortwave from the west and outflow
response from convection firing along a stalled boundary across
the Louisiana coastline will support showers and thunderstorms.
Still some uncertainty surrounding the evolution and maturity of
what does develop, but radar returns from KSHV, KLCH and KFWS
showcase convective initiation ongoing across central and east
Texas, along with southern Louisiana, indicating that instability
parameters have been conducive for thunderstorm initiation, and
possible downstream coverage. At this time, not ruling out the
chance for a severe thunderstorm or two, posing the threats of
damaging wind and large hail. Given recent events within this very
unpredictable NW flow regime, this will be worth monitoring
through the late afternoon.

Following convection this evening, conditions should fair calmer for
the remainder of the night as low temperatures fall into the low
70`s. Elected to include the chance for some patchy fog through
sunrise given the close T/Td relations projected following
convective probs. Sunday will again follow a very warm theme as
highs climb easily into the upper 80`s to near 90 deg F.

In terms of PoPs, hi-res CAMs and HREF solutions this afternoon have
tossed and turned at the idea of diurnally driven convection and
therefore chance PoPs have been added for the CWA. A D2 Marginal
Risk is present on the Storm Prediction Center SWO, but only
clipping portions of Deep East Texas. That being said though,
General Thunder is present everywhere else for pop-up showers and
storms. Again, given the pattern in place, can not rule out the
chance for a strong to severe storm with what may develop. As a
result, be sure to stay tuned to the forecast for any changes to
the SWO.

RK

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The long term pattern, starting Monday, is a story of heat and
some "currently" low end precip chances. As the upper trough to
the east departs, weak ridging looks to fill in it`s place to
start, supporting increasing MaxT`s through the upcoming week,
with temperatures gradually climbing with each day before maxing
out Thursday afternoon. During the period, can not rule out some
afternoon showers and thunderstorms given diurnally driven
instability and the chance for outflow driven convective
initiation. Guidance does point towards some small shortwaves
within the mid-level flow by mid-week which could support some
better coverage of PoPs if trends continue.

By the end of the period, a cold front will attempt to work into the
region, again supporting the chance for PoPs across the zones.
How this boundary is impacted by the guidance advertised ridge
pattern to the west will dictate how the boundary passage works
out. For now though, signs point towards brief relief from temps
climbing any higher than currently advertised.

Given the discussion surrounding the increase in high temps back to
the middle 90`s, higher dew point progression through the week will
support an increase in heat index values back towards the triple
digits. While no heat products are needed at this time, this will be
closely monitored in the coming days.

RK

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

For the 02/06Z TAF period, the majority of convection has exited
our airspace with all terminals now rain-free to begin the period.
In its wake, light winds and rain-soaked soils should help induce
patchy fog throughout much of the overnight until after daybreak
when improvements should commence. In addition, low stratus will
also likely result in MVFR/IFR cigs and possibly LIFR between the
09Z-14Z timeframe. With increased mixing/warming by late morning,
expect conditions to return to MVFR and eventually VFR closer to
midday with cigs lifting to around 3.5Kft and possibly scattering
out a bit more. Light and variable winds overnight will trend more
SE on Sunday between 5-10 kts with continued low confidence in any
convection. Therefore, this will be re-evaluated in the 02/12Z TAF
package.

/19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  73  91  74 /  30   0  20  10
MLU  89  72  90  73 /  30   0  20  10
DEQ  88  70  86  70 /  30  10  40  20
TXK  90  73  90  73 /  30  10  30  20
ELD  89  70  89  71 /  30   0  30  20
TYR  89  73  89  74 /  30  10  30  20
GGG  90  72  89  74 /  30  10  30  10
LFK  90  74  90  74 /  40   0  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...19