Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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534 FXUS64 KSHV 020253 AAB AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Shreveport LA 953 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 938 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Complex of showers and thunderstorms that produced widespread wind damage earlier this afternoon and evening has weakened significantly over Northeast and North Central Louisiana. Latest mesoanalysis indicates instability has rapidly decreased to between 500-1500 J/kg. In addition, the perturbation aloft that provided forcing for these storms should also move east and exit the area within the next few hours. However, a few isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms cannot be ruled out through the remainder of tonight and into early Sunday morning. Additional chances for severe weather should be low tonight and PoPs will become increasingly more confined to Northeast and North Central Louisiana. PoPs for the rest of tonight were updated to reflect current thinking as mentioned above. In addition, the rain helped to cool temperatures very quickly in some areas. Thus, some minor edits were made to the hourly temperature grids and overnight low temperature forecast for tonight. Updated text products have been sent. CN && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Cumulus field continues to increase this afternoon across the Four State Region as diurnally driven sfc instability evolves ahead of expected showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon. Upper forcing, as a result of a shortwave trough axis, is working east into the Ark-La-Tex and will do so through the evening. The combo of the aforementioned shortwave from the west and outflow response from convection firing along a stalled boundary across the Louisiana coastline will support showers and thunderstorms. Still some uncertainty surrounding the evolution and maturity of what does develop, but radar returns from KSHV, KLCH and KFWS showcase convective initiation ongoing across central and east Texas, along with southern Louisiana, indicating that instability parameters have been conducive for thunderstorm initiation, and possible downstream coverage. At this time, not ruling out the chance for a severe thunderstorm or two, posing the threats of damaging wind and large hail. Given recent events within this very unpredictable NW flow regime, this will be worth monitoring through the late afternoon. Following convection this evening, conditions should fair calmer for the remainder of the night as low temperatures fall into the low 70`s. Elected to include the chance for some patchy fog through sunrise given the close T/Td relations projected following convective probs. Sunday will again follow a very warm theme as highs climb easily into the upper 80`s to near 90 deg F. In terms of PoPs, hi-res CAMs and HREF solutions this afternoon have tossed and turned at the idea of diurnally driven convection and therefore chance PoPs have been added for the CWA. A D2 Marginal Risk is present on the Storm Prediction Center SWO, but only clipping portions of Deep East Texas. That being said though, General Thunder is present everywhere else for pop-up showers and storms. Again, given the pattern in place, can not rule out the chance for a strong to severe storm with what may develop. As a result, be sure to stay tuned to the forecast for any changes to the SWO. RK && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The long term pattern, starting Monday, is a story of heat and some "currently" low end precip chances. As the upper trough to the east departs, weak ridging looks to fill in it`s place to start, supporting increasing MaxT`s through the upcoming week, with temperatures gradually climbing with each day before maxing out Thursday afternoon. During the period, can not rule out some afternoon showers and thunderstorms given diurnally driven instability and the chance for outflow driven convective initiation. Guidance does point towards some small shortwaves within the mid-level flow by mid-week which could support some better coverage of PoPs if trends continue. By the end of the period, a cold front will attempt to work into the region, again supporting the chance for PoPs across the zones. How this boundary is impacted by the guidance advertised ridge pattern to the west will dictate how the boundary passage works out. For now though, signs point towards brief relief from temps climbing any higher than currently advertised. Given the discussion surrounding the increase in high temps back to the middle 90`s, higher dew point progression through the week will support an increase in heat index values back towards the triple digits. While no heat products are needed at this time, this will be closely monitored in the coming days. RK && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 For the 02/00Z TAFs, a complex of severe thunderstorms is tracking east by southeast out of deep east Texas at this hour, bringing potentially hazardous wind impacts to KSHV as well as thunder. Thunder looks to impact KLFK shortly, as well as showers with embedded thunder at KTXK. Behind the main complex, isolated thunder may be possible at KTYR and KGGG. Impacts look to be less intense once showers and storms progress towards KELD and KMLU. Look for marked VIS/CIGs reduction overnight towards dawn with calming winds and developing fog. New development of convection will be possible late in the forecast period, likely after 02/18Z. Winds will generally be southerly throughout, becoming lighter overnight and rebounding to speeds of 5 to 10 kts tomorrow afternoon. /26/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 71 90 73 91 / 30 30 0 20 MLU 69 89 72 90 / 50 30 0 20 DEQ 66 88 70 86 / 10 30 10 40 TXK 67 90 73 90 / 10 30 10 30 ELD 66 89 70 89 / 10 30 0 30 TYR 69 89 73 89 / 10 30 10 30 GGG 70 90 72 89 / 20 30 10 30 LFK 71 90 74 90 / 30 40 0 20 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....53 AVIATION...26