814
FXUS64 KSJT 290828
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
328 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Main area of severe convection pushed east of the area late
yesterday evening, but new more scattered showers and storms will
continue to work its way in from the northwest through sunrise.
Other than the one severe storm that wont die south of Lubbock,
none of the rest of the convection appears particularly strong.
Based on radar trends, will bump POPs up for the 09Z-12Z and
12Z-15Z time frames this morning across the Big Country and keep
an eye on continued trends.

Rain chances for the remainder of the day are uncertain. Air mass
will again be unstable with CAPE values above 3000 J/kg but shear
aloft isn`t as strong as it has been in recent days, there is a
little more cap to fight through, and surface boundaries are more
diffuse. CAMs are not showing a lot of coverage, but given the air
mass, will opt to go with a mention of scattered storms across
most of the area. Suspect that once we get into daylight, a couple
leftover outflow boundaries will end up reappearing and may
provide a little more focus

For tonight, will bump POPs up across the northern Big Country a
little more. CAMs continue to show a weak shortwave passing
across the area and helping kick off a little more convection
along the Red River north into Oklahoma. Models have struggled
with timing of these little waves so uncertainty that this
convective cluster will actually develop, but worth a little
higher thunderstorm chances than areas farther south.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue through the weekend,
with the higher chances generally concentrated across the Big
Country. With weak ridging in place on Thursday multiple
shortwaves embedded in the westerly flow will move overhead.
Models hint at another round of storms developing across the
Panhandle down into the Permian Basin Thursday afternoon, with
this activity potentially developing into an MCS and and moving
eastward into the Big Country Thursday evening/night. SPC has
a slight risk for severe weather on Thursday mainly north of I-20
to account for this scenario. Large hail and damaging winds would
be the primary hazards especially if an MCS does develop. Could
see a lull in activity on Friday before yet another shortwave
trough initiates another round of thunderstorms Saturday
afternoon/night and possibly more scattered storms on Sunday.
Upper level ridge over northern Mexico builds back in on Monday
and Tuesday resulting in only a slight chance of isolated showers
and thunderstorms on Monday. Temperatures will be much cooler for
the rest of the week- mainly in the 80s and 90s- before warming
back up near the triple digits by the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Convection has shifted east of the area early this morning,
leaving mostly gusty winds and high clouds across the area. There
is more convection across the South plains that is moving
generally this direction but it may not make this far south
before it dissipates. Will leave out for now. Likely to see
scattered convection again develop this afternoon and evening, but
so much uncertainty where and when that might happen that its not
worth putting in the aviation forecasts at this point. Otherwise,
some patchy low cloud formation likely by sunrise, with it
lifting and dissipating by mid to late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     83  67  88  67 /  50  20  40  50
San Angelo  92  71  95  69 /  30  10  30  30
Junction    94  72  96  70 /  30  20  20  30
Brownwood   82  68  86  69 /  50  20  40  50
Sweetwater  83  68  91  68 /  30  20  40  40
Ozona       92  71  93  69 /  20  10  10  20
Brady       87  70  88  69 /  30  20  30  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...07