Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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112 FXUS64 KSJT 271739 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1239 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 452 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 It will be a hot Memorial Day across west central Texas. Highs will top out around 101-106 degrees across the western Concho Valley down into the northern Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be slightly cooler over the northern Big Country north of a weak frontal boundary. Otherwise, SPC has areas east of a Merkel to Ballinger to Sonora line in a marginal risk for severe storms this afternoon. Upper level forcing will be fairly negligible and convergence along the dryline will be marginal. As a result CAMS only show a few storms developing mainly across our southeastern counties where the more favorable moisture will reside. Any storm that does develop will likely go severe due to CAPE values of greater than 3000 J/KG. Large hail would be the main hazard. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 432 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...Unsettled weather expected this week... Rain chances will increase across the area beginning Tuesday and persisting through the rest of the week. For Tuesday, the threat for severe storms will increase across much of the area. A stalled frontal boundary is expected to be over the Big Country on Tuesday, with a dryline extending south of the front across West Texas. Despite weak mid level riding over the area, models indicate several disturbances propagating through the flow aloft by late afternoon/early evening. Strong to extreme instability will be in place across the area by late afternoon, with CAPE`s 3000 to 4000+ J/kg per latest model data. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front and dryline Tuesday afternoon, with renewed convection possible over the area into the evening hours. Currently, there is a slight risk for severe storms for much of the area Tuesday afternoon/evening, with large to very large hail and damaging winds the main severe hazards, although and isolated tornado is also possible. Will maintain medium to low end high POP`s across the area Tuesday into Tuesday night. In additional to the severe threat, PW values will be high (1.5 to 2.0 inches), which will contribute to torrential downpours and a threat for localized flooding. The overall pattern changes little Wednesday through the end of the week, with a medium chance for showers and thunderstorms persisting through the period. While at least some threat for severe storms may exist just about each day, the threat for additional heavy rainfall and flooding may be more of a concern, as a very moist airmass persists across the area. Precipitation chances will decrease by the weekend, but isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be possible Saturday and Sunday, so will maintain low POPs across the area. As for temperatures, we finally get a break from the oppressive heat this week, with daytime highs mainly in the mid/upper 80s to lower 90s from Wednesday through the weekend, although highs may not get out of the 70s across the Big Country on Wednesday. Overnight lows will predominantly be in the 60s through the extended period. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Mainly VFR conditions with light southerly winds are expected for the rest of the day through tomorrow morning. An isolated storm or two will be possible late this afternoon or evening, but this was left out of the TAFs, except for Junction, due to low confidence. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 71 91 66 80 / 10 60 60 50 San Angelo 71 97 67 89 / 10 50 50 50 Junction 71 99 69 93 / 30 30 50 40 Brownwood 69 89 67 80 / 20 50 70 50 Sweetwater 71 94 66 80 / 10 60 50 50 Ozona 72 94 67 91 / 10 40 40 30 Brady 70 91 67 83 / 20 40 60 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...SK