Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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634 FXUS64 KSJT 301109 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 609 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 213 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Moist and unstable air mass continues across West Central Texas, with convection having redeveloped northeast of Abilene in an environment where the mid level instability and a little stronger low level jet combined. Few of the CAMs picked up on anything like this, although the HRW FV3 at least had something across West Central Texas. Larger convective complex across the South Plains and Panhandle was a little better handles by some of the models, but overall, models continue to struggle in this environment where mesoscale features are key. With that said, where the larger complex tracks and whether it leaves a boundary across the area will be a big part of the forecast issues for today. Most of the CAMs show some sort of strong to severe convection redeveloping this afternoon mainly to the northwest of the area and then forming into a MCS that rolls across some portion of the area. Models are favoring the Big Country and will place the highest POPs there for this afternoon and tonight, with lesser chances across the southern half of the area. All this assumes that outflow from this mornings convection doesn`t wash south into the area and stabilize the air mass like what happened a couple days ago. None of the models show this happening but will need to monitor. Hail and winds the main issues for tonight, with at least most of the models moving the MCS along fast enough to avoid widespread flood concerns. Again though, this will need to be closely watched. Portions of the Big Country and Heartland have seen enough rain over the last 6 weeks that creeks and streams are still flowing pretty well. Finally, not messing around with temperatures just a whole lot. Again, barring a stronger outflow from the north with cooler readings, highs today in the low to mid 90s look good. Some rain cooler temperatures behind the MCS should allow more readings in the 60s for overnight lows. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 202 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Rain chances will continue across West Central Texas Friday into Saturday, with a gradual drying trend Sunday into early next week. A Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) is forecast to track across much of the area Thursday night into early Friday morning. The NAN Nest and to a lesser extent the HRRR show another round of storms moving from northwest to southwest across the area later Friday morning. If this does occur, it might limit our storm potential for later in the day. Otherwise, additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon. A weak cold front may also serve as a focus for convection. Strong to severe thunderstorms will again be possible, with large hail and damaging winds being the main concerns. Highs on Friday will be in the low to mid 80s across the Big Country and much of the Heartland to the upper 80s to lower 90s elsewhere. On Saturday, an upper level ridge will remain centered across northern Mexico, with West Central Texas in west flow aloft. The GFS indicates a disturbance tracking across the area late in the day, resulting in the development of showers and thunderstorms to our west, with this activity then tracking across the forecast area late in the day and into the overnight hours. The ECMWF is drier, so for now have kept PoPs in the low end chance category. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s. On Sunday, isolated showers and thunderstorms will again be possible, mainly confined to the Big Country and Heartland. Highs will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Upper level ridging will begin to build into the region by early next week, with an increase in temperatures through the middle of the week. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid 90s to near 102. Slight chance PoPs return to the area by the middle of next week. Isolated mainly diurnally driven convection is possible on the eastern periphery of the ridge. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 VFR across most West Central Texas terminals early this morning, although low cloud imagery continues to show some patchy MVFR cigs moving north and approaching several of the southern terminals. Given how patchy this looks, don`t expect anything more than a brief MVFR cig before improving my mid morning. Otherwise, watchinga large cluster of convection near the Red River moving southeast, although does not appear like this will approach any of the terminals locations. Outflow will move south and act as a boundary to focus more convection for later in the afternoon and evening and will continue the mention of storms for the evening and into the early morning hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 89 64 80 68 / 30 70 50 20 San Angelo 94 67 90 70 / 20 40 40 20 Junction 95 70 92 72 / 20 40 30 20 Brownwood 88 65 81 69 / 30 70 60 30 Sweetwater 91 65 81 68 / 30 70 50 20 Ozona 91 70 90 70 / 20 30 20 10 Brady 89 67 83 69 / 20 50 50 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...07