481
FXUS64 KSJT 201048
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
548 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

The heat and dry weather will continue across west central Texas
today. Highs will again climb into the upper 90s to around 102
degrees. Records aren`t expected to be broken with both Abilene and
San Angelo records at 105. Winds will continue to be out of the
south and gusty today, but shouldn`t be quite as breezy as they were
yesterday. We could see a few low clouds this morning, mainly east
of a Brownwood to Brady to Junction line, but even if these clouds
do develop, they should scatter out by mid morning at the latest.
Lows will also continue to be warm, dropping only into the low to
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 434 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate hot and dry weather will result
from a high pressure ridge that sits over our area through Tuesday.
Then, a frontal boundary will affect the area on Wednesday
afternoon, which will limit high temperatures across the Big
Country to the middle 80s. This frontal boundary will combine with
a dryline off to the west to support thunderstorm development
during the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. Additional
activity is possible across the region on Thursday along the
dryline as a minor disturbance aloft also moves through. All of
this activity will have to be monitored closely for severe weather
potential. Conditions appear to be favorable for possible severe
weather on Wednesday and Thursday. With regards to Tuesday, a
Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place. However, it remains
to be seen if any thunderstorm development can be initiated. If it
does initiate, then these thunderstorms will certainly carry the
risk of severe weather. However, chances remain low (less than
20%) for thunderstorm development. Large hail and damaging winds
appear to be the main concerns at this time. Please check back
over the next day or two for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 548 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Scattered MVFR clouds are attempting to move north into the KJCT,
KBBD, and KSOA areas, but are having trouble making progress into
our area. Will address the potential for low clouds at KJCT with a
TEMPO group, and at KSOA and KBBD with SCT groups. Any clouds that
make it into the area will scatter out well before 18Z, leaving
all sites in VFR conditions through the rest of the afternoon and
into most of the overnight hours. Another round of MVFR ceilings
may impact southern sites shortly before 12Z Tuesday morning.
Otherwise, all sites will see gusty south/southwest winds by late
morning or early afternoon today, with diminishing southeast winds
after 00Z tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     97  73  96  73 /   0   0  10  10
San Angelo 102  73 100  71 /   0   0   0  10
Junction   100  72 101  74 /   0   0   0  10
Brownwood   93  71  93  72 /   0   0  10  10
Sweetwater 100  74  98  72 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona       97  72  97  72 /   0   0   0  10
Brady       94  71  95  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...20