119
FXUS64 KSJT 150529
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1229 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Temperatures have climbed into the 80s to lower 90s across our area
this afternoon. With an ill-defined dryline setting up just west of
our area, a couple of hi-res models indicate a possibility for a few
isolated high-based storms to develop along it and move east-
southeast into our area. Carrying an isolated thunderstorm
possibility in the western Big Country and Concho Valley into the
southeastern part of our area late this afternoon and evening. With
downdraft CAPE values 1000-1500 J/Kg and marginal effective bulk
shear (25-30 knots), a strong to severe storm would be possible with
wind gusts over 60 mph and hail up to quarter size. Temperatures
will be warmer tonight with southeast to south winds, and overnight
lows are expected to be in the lower to mid 60s.

A shortwave ridge aloft will shift east over Texas tonight into
Wednesday. An upper low/trough will move slowly east across the
northern Baja region toward far northwestern Mexico on Wednesday.
The flow aloft will become southwest over our area, out ahead of
this system. With a surface low developing over eastern New Mexico
and tightening surface pressure gradient, increased and gusty
south winds are expected for our area Wednesday. A north-south
dryline will be positioned in West Texas. May have a weak embedded
disturbance approach the area in southwest flow aloft. While the
primary possibility of thunderstorm development will be to our
west (and closer to the dryline), carrying a slight chance PoP
along the western border of our forecast area in the late
afternoon. Temperatures will be a little warmer Wednesday, with
highs from the upper 80s to mid 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...Severe weather possible Thursday. Triple digits return this
weekend...

The upper level ridging will continue to slide off to the east on
Thursday. As it does this, a short wave will move approach from the
west, providing upper level support for showers and thunderstorms. A
few disturbances could move through the flow aloft late Wednesday
into early Thursday, allowing for a slight chance to chance of rain
overnight. The better chances for showers and storms will be during
the day Thursday and into the early overnight hours. The
south/southeast surface winds will bring in moisture from the gulf,
raising dewpoints and helping to increase precipitable water values
in excess of 1.5 inches for eastern portions of our area Thursday
afternoon. A surface low is expected to move near or over our area
on Thursday, bringing a front into the area. Weak convergence along
the front, combined with upper level lift, sufficient instability,
and decent wind shear will provide an environment conducive for
strong to severe thunderstorms. Right now, very large hail, damaging
winds, and an isolated tornado look possible with these storms, as
well as heavy rainfall and localized flooding under storms.

Northerly winds on Friday will keep temperatures a bit cooler and
closer to normal for the afternoon. However, as the short wave
continues east, an upper level ridge will build over the south
central United States for the weekend and early next week. Our
surface winds will quickly switch back to the south on Saturday. As
warm air is brought in at the surface and a thermal ridge builds at
mid levels, temperatures could reach into the upper 90s and triple
digits for Sunday and the start of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions with increasing southerly winds this morning and
widespread low-level wind shear through sunrise. Winds will
increase through afternoon with gusts over 25 KT possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     91  64  79  60 /  10  20  80  40
San Angelo  94  67  88  60 /  10  20  60  10
Junction    95  69  89  63 /  10  10  50  10
Brownwood   91  65  77  62 /   0  20  90  30
Sweetwater  91  65  80  60 /  10  20  80  40
Ozona       91  68  91  60 /  10  20  20  10
Brady       90  67  79  62 /   0  20  80  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....AP
AVIATION...SK