434
FXUS64 KSJT 231144 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
644 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

An isolated thunderstorm has developed early this morning in
Crockett County. This is occurring along an instability gradient and
where effective bulk shear values are 60-65 knots. Hail and
lightning are the main concerns with this initial convective
development. Southeast winds will become south this morning with
warm, moist advection across the area. With this setup and the
possible influence of a passing wave in west-southwest flow aloft,
some of the hi-res models indicate isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing over the southern Concho Valley counties by
7 AM, and then expanding in coverage and overspreading our eastern
counties into this afternoon. A dryline will mix east across the
western third to half of our area this afternoon. A few additional
showers and storms could develop ahead of the dryline in the Big
Country in the 3 PM to 6 PM time frame. With moderate to strong
instability and favorably strong effective bulk shear, a few strong
to severe storms will be possible with large hail and damaging winds
the main threats. The primary severe weather threat area is in our
northern and eastern counties. Expect highs today to range from the
upper 80s/lower 90s in the northern and eastern Big Country and
Heartland areas, to the upper 90s/near 100 in the western Concho
Valley (including San Angelo) and Northern Edwards Plateau.

For tonight, the dryline will make a partial retreat to the western
Big Country and northwestern Concho Valley overnight. A warm and
humid night is expected east of the dryline with south winds. Expect
overnight low-level moisture transport to result in low cloud
development over our southeastern counties. Friday morning lows
should range from the mid 60s in the western Big Country and
northwestern Concho Valley, to the lower 70s in our southeastern
counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

A shortwave trough will track east across the northern Plains
Thursday night, with an associated weak cold front dropping south
across the Big Country on Friday. The dryline will mix east into
far southeast counties by late afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms
may develop along and south of the front and along the dryline
over far southeast counties during the late afternoon hours.
Although confidence remains low at this time, any storms that
develop will have the potential to become strong/severe given
very strong instability and plenty of shear (0-6 km around 40
kts). Models are quite anemic though, so kept POPs at 20 percent.

Hot and dry weather will be the main theme for the start of the
Memorial Day weekend. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the
upper 90s to low 100s both days, with overnight lows in the upper
60s and lower 70s. A stronger front is expected to arrive early
on Memorial Day. The front will bring considerably cooler
temperatures to the area through mid week, with highs in the
upper 80s/low to mid 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday. Also, low rain
chances return Tuesday night into Wednesday, as a possible
disturbance in southwest flow aloft affects the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Low cloud cover is widespread over the area early this morning,
with MVFR to IFR ceilings and patchy fog. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are occurring over the southern Concho
Valley and southeastern part of West Central Texas. The KBBD site
will be most directly affected by the convection early this
morning, with locally heavy rain and possibly some hail. Cloud
cover will linger through the morning into early afternoon, but
ceilings will climb above 3000ft by mid-to-late morning. Clearing
is expected from the west and southwest later in the afternoon.
Isolated to scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated through the morning in our central and eastern
counties, with a lingering chance of showers and storms in our
eastern counties in the afternoon. Southeast winds 4-8 knots
overnight will become south at 8-12 knots by mid-to-late morning,
with occasional gusts 18-22 knots at KABI and KSJT by late morning
into the afternoon. For tonight, winds will be from the south to
southwest at 5-9 knots. Most of the area will have mostly clear
skies through the night, but expect some low cloud development
over our southeastern counties toward morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     90  69  94  65 /  20   0   0   0
San Angelo  98  67 101  63 /  20   0   0   0
Junction    98  71 102  70 /  20   0  10   0
Brownwood   88  69  94  69 /  40   0  10   0
Sweetwater  95  66  93  65 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       98  67 100  65 /  10   0   0   0
Brady       90  71  94  70 /  30   0  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19