722
FXUS64 KSJT 202319
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
619 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 134 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Upper level ridging from this weekend will begin to slide off to the
east through the overnight hours tonight, putting our area in a zone
of southwest flow aloft. We`re already starting to see some high
clouds drift into our area this afternoon with increasing moisture
aloft and this trend will continue through the overnight hours.
Gusty southerly winds overnight tonight will keep overnight lows on
the mild side in the low to mid 70s. This will also replenish low
level moisture across the area which will allow for the development
of low clouds across much of the area late overnight and into the
early morning hours. These will scatter out by mid-morning only to
be replaced by another round of high clouds. Even with the 850 mb
thermal ridge remaining fairly strong across our southwestern
counties in the 28-30 deg C range, a lack of insolation will prevent
temperatures from climbing much higher than 100 degrees tomorrow.
Most locations will stay in the mid to upper 90s with the warmest
locations in the Western Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau.
The dryline will once again move east, bisecting our area by mid
afternoon. SPC has highlighted our eastern counties ahead of the
dryline in a Marginal Risk for their Day 2 Convective Outlook. The
threat is conditional with some hi-res guidance indicating a capping
inversion holding through the afternoon. Upper level support will be
on the marginal side this far south but there may be enough
convergence along the dryline to see some development by late
afternoon. With plenty of moisture and instability present ahead of
the dryline, storms will have the potential of becoming severe,
primarily posing a large hail and damaging wind threat. Confidence
in convective development is low overall with the CAMs being rather
anemic across our area. Even if storms do form, coverage is expected
to be highly isolated so many will likely not see any activity
tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

On Wednesday, a weak cold front is expected to stall across the Big
Country, with a dryline mixing east into far western portions of the
forecast area by late afternoon. Thunderstorms will be possible
along and ahead of these two features Wednesday afternoon and
evening, but coverage of storms is a bit uncertain at this time due
to limited upper level support. If storms manage to develop, then a
few may become severe, with large hail and damaging winds the main
hazards. Temperatures will be cooler on wednesday, especially
behind the front across the Big Country. Highs will range from the
upper 80s and lower 90s across the Big Country, and generally the
mid and upper 90s elsewhere. The dryline will mix a bit farther east
on Thursday, and thunderstorms may develop along and east of the
dryline by late afternoon and evening. The best chance for storms
will be along and east of a Sweetwater to Junction line. Coverage of
storms is uncertain at this time due to a potentially strong capping
inversion. Any storms that manage to develop will have the potential
to become severe, with large hail and damaging winds possible. Highs
on Thursday will range from the lower 90s across eastern sections,
to the mid and upper 90s elsewhere.

Mainly a hot and dry forecast Friday through next Monday, with west
to southwest flow aloft prevailing. May see another weak front
arrive across the Big Country Sunday night or Monday, which may
bring another chance for showers and storms. Temperatures will be
hot through the period, with highs upper 90s, to low 100s (102 to
104 degrees). Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

MVFR stratus advects back north late tonight across all terminals
except KABI. KABI may see temporary VFR stratus mid morning.
Stratus otherwise scatters out mid to late morning. Southeast to
south winds will not be as strong overnight and Tuesday. Gusts
are possible mid morning, but winds lose there gusty character and
fall below 12KTS late morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     74  94  72  91 /   0  10  10  40
San Angelo  74  99  72  97 /   0   0  20  30
Junction    73 100  73  99 /   0  10  10  20
Brownwood   71  93  72  89 /   0  10  20  40
Sweetwater  74  97  71  91 /   0   0  10  30
Ozona       73  97  72  96 /   0   0  20  10
Brady       71  94  72  92 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...04