486
FXUS64 KSJT 050746
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
246 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

New daily record of 109 reached at 2 PM at the San Angelo
airport, and there are 2 to 3 hours of heating left. All time
record high is 114 degrees set in 2023. Previous to 2023, the all
time record was 111, and that might be possible. Dry line
extended from east of a Sonora to San Angelo to Sweetwater line,
with temperatures in the 104 to 109 range to the west of it.

Some relief is in store Wednesday as a cold front moves into the
Big Country late tonight and through the rest of West Central
Texas Wednesday morning. But it will still be warm to hot, with
highs in the lower to mid 90s in the Big Country, and upper 90s to
101 from the Concho Valley south to I-10. There is an outside
chance of a thunderstorm late afternoon along the front in Kimble
county, but otherwise dry conditions are expected to prevail.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...Hot and Dry through Saturday then Becoming Unsettled Next
Week...


A hot and dry weather pattern should continue for late this week
into the weekend. A 590 dam height ridge that got established on
Wednesday should drift eastward and become centered over west Texas
on Thursday and Friday. The 00Z NAM shows a weakness in the ridge
Thursday evening, but at this point, only shows thunderstorms over
the Panhandle  and I-27 corridor, so PoPs were left out of our
forecast area.  Otherwise, the strong upper-level high should
suppress convection as it traverses eastward, thanks to 700mb
temperatures of 13-14 degrees C.  Surface temperatures should
easily reach the upper 90s to low 100s through Saturday.

Looking ahead to Sunday through the middle of next week, global
models show that the mid-level ridge should break down as a trough
digs southward through the central US.  Models also show a surface
cold front being pushed southward into Texas.  Chances for showers
and thunderstorms will increase during this time period as the front
should provide plenty of lift for an airmass with dewpoints in the
mid to upper 60s.  Temperatures should also also drop to the upper
80s to low 90s range, given the cooler airmass and higher chances
for clouds and rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

There`s two areas of low clouds near our area tonight. One is to
our southeast and could potentially move into KBBD and KJCT. The
other is to our northeast and is associated with a line of storms
pushing south. An outflow boundary from these storms will move
through our area today, turning winds to the north and potentially
bringing low end VFR or MVFR ceilings to KABI this morning. Winds
behind the boundary could be gusty at times this afternoon. We
could see isolated storms near KSOA and KJCT this evening, however
confidence is still low at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     94  70  99  73 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 100  72 103  73 /  10  10  10   0
Junction   101  72 101  72 /  20  20  10   0
Brownwood   92  69  95  70 /  10   0   0   0
Sweetwater  94  71 100  74 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona      102  72 100  73 /  10  10  10   0
Brady       94  70  95  70 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...AP