622
FXUS64 KSJT 211127 AAA
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
627 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Our area will be under southwest flow aloft today and tonight
with an upper level ridge to our east over the lower Mississippi
Valley/Gulf Coast states, and a broad upper trough over most of
the western half of the CONUS. A dryline will mix east across at
least the northern and western parts of our area today. By late
afternoon, the dryline should extend from east of Wichita Falls to
Putnam to just west of Sonora. A few thunderstorms are possible
late this afternoon and evening along the dryline. Carrying slight
chance PoP for the area generally east of an Albany to Ballinger
to Eden line. Cap strength will be an issue and may not have any
storm development. However, with strong instability and effective
bulk shear around 50 knots, have a conditional risk for large to
very large hail and localized damaging wind gusts with any storms
that can develop. Temperatures will be hot again today, especially
behind the dryline. But some presence of high clouds should have
a slight limiting effect. Expect highs to range from the lower to
mid 90s in our eastern counties, to around 100 degrees in the
western Concho Valley (including San Angelo) and along parts of
the I-10 corridor.

The dryline will retreat west and northwest of our area
overnight, and low-level moisture transport with southerly winds
will result in warm and humid conditions overnight. Lows will be
71-74 degrees across our area. Expect low cloud development from
the south late tonight, to the I-20 corridor by daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...Chance for severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening...

By early Wednesday morning, a cold front will be moving into our
northern counties, with the front expected to make progress south
of Interstate 20, and possibly into the Concho Valley and
Heartland areas by mid to late afternoon. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along this boundary as it moves
south. Plentiful moisture will be available in the low levels with
dewpoint values well into the 60s to near 70 degrees for most of
the area. A dryline may push into the western Concho Valley and
Northern Edwards Plateau areas during the afternoon, which would
limit moisture, but also could provide a secondary focus for
convection. South of the front, temperatures will warm well into
the 90s to around 100 degrees, while along and north of the front,
temperatures will be cooler, and may be affected by ongoing
precipitation/cloud cover. Surface based CAPE will approach 4000
J/kg, and 0-6 km shear will generally be greater than 40 knots.
Depending on the timing, some shortwave energy could also move
through in southwest flow aloft. At any rate, if thunderstorms can
get going they will quickly increase to severe levels with the
ample instability. Large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts,
and even a few tornadoes will be possible, mainly east of a
Sweetwater/San Angelo/Sonora line. Although most of the more
intense activity is expected during the afternoon and evening, if
there are storms during the morning hours they could also be
severe.

Thunderstorms will be possible again Thursday afternoon. Once
again, severe storms may develop, mainly east of a Sweetwater to
San Saba line.

From Friday through the Memorial Day Weekend, zonal flow to weak
ridging is expected to develop aloft. This is expected to keep our
weather dry, and our temperatures very hot with highs in the 90s
to around 100 degrees, and lows from the mid 60s to mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Low clouds have developed early this morning over most of our
southern and central counties, and will expand north toward the
I-20 corridor in the next 1-2 hours. Cloud ceilings are be MVFR.
The KABI terminal should be near or just north of the low cloud
field, where a scattered low cloud group is being carried with a
temporary ceiling. Low cloud cover will break up mid-to-late
morning with VFR conditions through the rest of the day. South
winds will veer to the southwest at most of our TAF sites by late
morning. With the exception of KBBD and KJCT, winds may briefly
become west or northwest by early afternoon. Winds will be from
the south tonight. Any thunderstorm development should be
isolated or widely scattered, and confidence is too low at this
time to include a mention in our TAFs at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     95  72  88  69 /  10  10  40  30
San Angelo 100  72 100  70 /   0  10  30  30
Junction   101  72 100  71 /   0  10  20  20
Brownwood   94  72  90  69 /  10  20  40  30
Sweetwater  98  71  93  69 /   0  10  30  20
Ozona       98  74  98  69 /   0  10  10  20
Brady       95  72  93  70 /  10  20  40  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...19