Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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109 FXUS64 KSJT 031905 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 205 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Latest visible imagery shows an outflow boundary south of the Red River, which may move into Haskell and Throckmorton counties. This area is probably the best bet for a thunderstorm or two this afternoon evening, but can not rule out isolated storms farther south...from Brownwood to Junction and east...where there may be differential heating from a stratus layer from earlier this morning. The focus for Tuesday transitions from storms to heat, as an upper ridge develops over the region, and a dryline develops east of a Sonora to San Angelo to Abilene to Haskell line in the afternoon. Highs will approach 105 in the Concho Valley, although heat indices are lower at upper 90s to 100. Farther east, heat indices along and east of a Brownwood to Junction line range from 105 to 108. A heat advisory may be needed in either or both of these areas Tuesday afternoon, with areas from Brownwood to Junction and east have the greatest risk. Record high temperatures are in jeopardy Tuesday. The record high at Abilene of 101 in 2013 looks to be exceeded with a forecast high of 104. San Angelo forecast of 105 will be close, with the record high of 107 in 1916. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...Above Normal Temperatures Expected This Week... An upper level ridge will sit over the western U.S. (including our area) through the long term, allowing for above normal and potentially record breaking heat for this week. High temperature records could be broken on Tuesday, with temperatures and heat index values above 105 for much of our area south of the Big Country. The current records for June 4th are 101 (set in 2013) for Abilene and 107 (set in 1916) fro San Angelo. The forecast highs for the 4th are 103 and 106 respectively. As a surface low situates itself to our west/southwest on Wednesday, winds will turn from the west/southwest to the east/southeast. This will keep surface temperatures cooler on Wednesday compared to Tuesday, due to the lack of downsloping winds. However, with southeasterly winds comes increased moisture and higher apparent temperatures. So even though the actual temperature is forecast to be lower, the heat index will likely be similar if not higher for some areas on Wednesday and Thursday. It is worth noting that portions of West Central Texas are forecast to reach the extreme threshold in both WBGT and Heat risk for the afternoons of Tuesday through Thursday. Heat advisories and possibly even an excessive heat warning might be needed. The ridge will help to suppress convective activity, but there are still a few chances for rain. A few disturbances will move through the flow aloft over the next week thanks to a shortwave over the northern U.S. and an upper low to our southwest. The best rain chances over the next week will be late this weekend and early next week, but precipitation chances are still on the lower && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The tight pressure gradient across west central Texas will remain in place through early this evening, keeping gusty southerly winds in the forecast until this evening. Overall VFR conditions are expected across all terminals today, with the exception of some lingering MVFR ceilings across KABI, KJCT, and KBBD through 20Z today. The dryline across West Texas continues to progress eastward today, into the western portions of our area and potentially sparking some shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening. This may cause some MVFR ceilings near any terminals experiencing these showers and thunderstorms. Gusty winds will subside slightly overnight with southerly winds at around 08 to 15 knots remaining into Tuesday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 73 102 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 72 105 74 101 / 0 0 0 10 Junction 74 104 75 103 / 10 0 10 10 Brownwood 72 99 73 95 / 20 0 10 0 Sweetwater 72 103 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 73 103 74 101 / 0 0 0 10 Brady 72 99 74 96 / 20 0 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...61 LONG TERM....AP AVIATION...TP