Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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788 FXUS64 KSJT 011927 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 227 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Currently, we have temperatures in the 80s to near 90 degrees, with dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s. This is yielding CAPEs in the 2500 to 4000 J/kg range across the area, along with effective bulk shear values of 35 to 50 knots for the most part. The dryline is well off to the west, and convection has developed over the higher terrain to our west. These storms are expected to move east toward our area during the evening hours, but skeptical about how much progress they will be able to make into our area, as they will be moving in during the evening hours as that instability starts to wane. But, considering the combination of instability/shear available, will include a mention of severe weather potential for our western areas this evening, with the best chances in Crockett County. The main concerns will be large to very large hail, and damaging wind gusts. For Sunday, similar conditions will yield another unstable atmosphere by mid to late afternoon. So, we will have another chance for isolated to widely scattered storms developing to the west of the area, and moving into our western counties during the late afternoon/evening hours, with some of these storms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Saturday) Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 For Sunday night, the combination of an upper level disturbance, a dryline to the west and strong/locally extreme instability will result in scattered thunderstorms across much of the area during the evening. A few storms may be severe with the main hazards being large to very large hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, expect hot and mainly dry conditions for much of this week due to an upper level ridge building across the Southern Plains and a 850 MB thermal ridge of 28-30 deg C. Highs will be upper 90s to around 105 Tuesday through Thursday. Please follow heat safety precautions. Expect slight cooler temperatures Friday and Saturday with highs in the 90s to around 100. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Mainly VFR conditions across the area early this afternoon, with only KSOA still hovering at higher end MVFR. All sites will be VFR within the next few hours, with VFR conditions prevailing through the overnight hours. Expect to see MVFR ceilings move back into the area by around 12Z Sunday morning at KJCT and KSOA. Although some ISO to SCT TSRA will approach the area later tonight, confidence is not high enough in placement or coverage to introduce a mention at this time. Otherwise, east to southeast winds around 10 knots at most sites through tomorrow morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 70 89 72 96 / 10 20 30 10 San Angelo 70 94 74 99 / 30 10 30 10 Junction 72 95 76 99 / 20 10 20 10 Brownwood 70 88 72 91 / 20 20 20 10 Sweetwater 70 90 73 97 / 20 20 30 10 Ozona 70 91 74 97 / 40 10 20 10 Brady 70 89 73 93 / 20 10 20 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...20