993
FXUS64 KSJT 061055
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
555 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 226 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

Early this morning, skies were mostly clear across west central
Texas with temperatures in the mid 70s.  At the upper levels, a 590
dam height ridge that got established on Wednesday should drift
eastward and become centered over west Texas today.  At the surface,
a frontal boundary was stalled out near the I-10 corridor. This
frontal boundary will push back northward today, allowing southerly
surface flow to bring warmer conditions back into the Big Country.
High temperatures around the area look to reach the upper 90s to low
100s this afternoon.  The 00Z model runs show a weakness developing
on the northeast side of the upper-level ridge this evening, thanks
to a shortwave impulse in the northwest flow aloft over the central
High Plains.  Between this feature and a southward-moving cold
front, storms should fire over western Oklahoma and the Panhandle by
this evening and persist into the overnight hours. Most of the
activity should remain closer to Lubbock, but some slight chance
PoPs were included for some counties this evening north of I-20 in
case of additional development. The strong upper-level ridge
should otherwise suppress convection for areas further south this
afternoon and evening, thanks to 700mb temperatures of 13-14
degrees C.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...Hot and dry through Saturday, then unsettled weather possible
for next week...

High pressure aloft will persist across West Central Texas through
much of the weekend, with hot and dry conditions expected through
Saturday. Afternoon highs are expected to reach into the mid 90s
to near 104, with overnight lows in the 70s through Saturday. A
weak disturbance will track into the area Sunday, bringing
increased cloud cover and chances for some showers and
thunderstorms, as well as resulting in slightly cooler
temperatures. For the start of the workweek next week, models
continue to show the ridge weakening and eventually shifting
south and westward by Tuesday. This will allow the next in a
series of shortwave troughs to track over the area, bringing
cooler but more unsettled conditions to West Central Texas.
Specifically for Monday, a surface cold front will track across
the area Sunday night into Monday bringing afternoon high
temperatures for Monday back into the low 80s to low 90s.
Temperatures will begin to gradually trend back upwards into the
90s by the later half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 555 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions with south to southeast winds. This afternoon, some
locations will see winds increase to 10 KT with gusts near 20 at
times before decreasing late this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     99  73 100  76 /   0  10   0   0
San Angelo 103  75 103  74 /  10   0   0   0
Junction   102  72 102  72 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   96  70  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater 101  75 101  76 /   0  10   0   0
Ozona       99  74 100  72 /  10  10   0   0
Brady       96  71  97  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM....TP
AVIATION...SK