754
FXUS64 KSJT 060516
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1216 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The outflow boundary from this morning`s convection over in the
Metroplex and eastern Texas has largely moved through our CWA with
winds out of the east/northeast bringing low level moisture back
into the area. With this outflow boundary making a bit more progress
south and west than earlier forecasts, the latest hi-resolution
guidance is hinting at convective development just south of our area
in and around Val Verde/Edwards counties but some of this may sneak
north into our area, generally staying south of the I-10 corridor.
With abundant heating this afternoon and low level moisture starting
to slowly work back west, CAPE values will be significant. However,
with generally weak flow through the vertical profile, effective
shear will be limited. These storms will struggle to maintain their
organization, lowering the potential magnitude of any severe
weather. As such, the overall severe threat is low but non-zero with
the edge of the Day 1 Marginal Risk for Severe Weather clipping our
far southern counties. Large hail will be possible given steep mid-
level lapse rates as well as damaging winds. As instability wanes
into the evening hours, any chances for storms will likely come to
an end by around 02-03Z.

Temperatures overnight will be mild in the upper 60s to low 70s,
with most places likely falling within a few degrees of their dew
point. This may cause some reductions in visibility due to haze/fog
tomorrow morning but confidence was still a bit too low in
occurrence to put mentions of it in the forecast. Trends will
need to be monitored tonight. With upper level ridging deepening
over West Texas tomorrow, the forecast looks to remain dry with
plenty of sunshine. Temperatures will range from the upper 90s in
our eastern counties where more abundant moisture will continue to
reside to around 105 across the Western Concho Valley where the
850 mb thermal ridge will begin to build back in.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...Hot and Dry through Saturday, then Becoming Unsettled Next
Week...

Strong upper level high pressure will settle over Texas Friday
into Saturday. This will result in hot and dry weather both days,
with afternoon highs in the upper 90s and low 100s and overnight
lows in the 70s.

As we head into next week, models continue to show the ridge
weakening and eventually shifting westward across Mexico and
into the southwest states by mid to late week. Still looks like a
surface cold front will push southward Sunday night into Monday.
Rain chances will increase ,with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures will also be
considerably cooler through mid week, with highs in the upper 80s
to low 90s, and overnight lows in the 60s. Northwest flow aloft
will prevail across the area Tuesday into Wednesday, which may
result in some showers and storms affecting mainly the Big
Country. Will maintain low POPs across this area for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024

VFR conditions with southeast winds this morning will turn
southerly by midday. Some locations will see winds increase to 10
KT with gusts near 20 at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     99  73 100  76 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 103  73 103  74 /  10   0   0   0
Junction   102  71 102  72 /  10   0   0   0
Brownwood   98  69  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater 101  74 101  76 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona      100  74 100  72 /  10   0   0   0
Brady       97  70  97  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...SK