901
FXUS64 KSJT 180516
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1216 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Quiet weather will continue through the rest of today and into
tomorrow. Isolated thunderstorms may develop across the Davis
Mountains and Stockton Plateau this evening  but most of this
activity should remain west of our area. Skies this afternoon are
mostly clear across the western half of area with some scattered
clouds streaming across the Big Country, Heartland, and northwest
Hill Country. Temperatures are hottest across the Concho Valley,
where we have readings currently in the upper 90s. Overnight,
expect low level clouds to spread across the area. Lows will drop
down into the lower 70s. Clouds should scatter out in the
afternoon giving way to partly sunny skies. The hottest
temperatures will again be across the Concho Valley. South-
southeast winds will remain gusty overnight and into Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...Heavy rainfall, possible flooding Wednesday and Thursday...

Main weather concern will be a tropical disturbance in the Gulf
of Mexico, which could become a tropical depression/storm over the
next 48 hours (around 70 percent chance of development on the Two
Day Tropical Weather Outlook from the Hurricane Center). Models,
have the system moving into Gulf Coast Tuesday night...along a
Junction to Brownwood line Wednesday...before moving west across
the region Wednesday night into Thursday.

Tropical moisture with 2 inches of precipital water moves into
the region Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will be extremely
efficient, and localized flooding possible, particularly south of
I-20. Main problem will how much influence a developing upper
ridge over Mississippi Valley and Southeast U.S. will have....as
it may keep the heavy rainfall confined father south along the
I-10 corridor. Rainfall in most areas will continue to be
beneficial, but extreme tropical rainfall rates could cause flash
flooding.

The system does moves west of the region Thursday night, and dry
conditions with clearing skies are expected Friday as the upper
ridge continue to expand in from the east. Temperatures rebound
back well into the 90s by Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VFR conditions currently present across the area. Scattered to
broken MVFR ceilings are moving northwest out of the Hill Country
and are expected to overspread the area in the coming hours. MVFR
ceilings will begin impacting all sites between 07-10Z before
scattering out back to VFR after 15Z. Winds will remain gusty
through the period out of the south to southeast with all sites
seeing gusts in the 20-30 kt range. Gusts are expected to decrease
in magnitude after 00Z tomorrow.|

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     92  71  86  69 /   0   0  10  40
San Angelo  97  72  89  71 /   0   0  20  50
Junction    95  72  85  71 /   0   0  30  70
Brownwood   89  71  83  71 /   0   0  30  50
Sweetwater  95  71  89  69 /   0   0  10  40
Ozona       94  71  88  69 /   0   0  10  60
Brady       89  71  81  70 /   0   0  40  60

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...50