Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 050428 AAB
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1128 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Skies will be generally clear through most of the night. Similar
to what occurred early Friday morning, some low cloud development
is expected early Saturday morning, mainly across the southern
third of our area. Carrying MVFR ceilings mainly between 12Z and
15Z at KJCT and KSOA, with a Tempo group at KBBD and a scattered
mention at KSJT. Models indicate a little more low-level moisture
presence on Saturday, compared to Friday. Anticipate a cumulus
field developing by or shortly before Noon. Southeast winds will
veer to the south overnight. Mainly south winds near 10 knots are
expected on Saturday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

As the cumulus field this evening dissipates, expect mostly clear
skies through most of tonight. Similar to what occurred early
this morning, some low cloud development is expected early
Saturday morning, mainly across the southern third of our area.
Carrying MVFR ceilings mainly between 12Z and 15Z at KJCT and
KSOA, with a Tempo group at KBBD and a scattered mention at KSJT.
Models indicate a little more low-level moisture presence on
Saturday, compared to today. Anticipate a cumulus field developing
by or shortly before Noon. Southeast winds this evening will
decrease and veer to the south overnight. Mainly south winds near
10 knots are expected on Saturday.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Continued hot and dry in the short term across West Central Texas.
Cumulus field this afternoon across the area is showing a little
more development than in recent days, although not enough so far to
break through and develop into any showers or storms quite yet. Not
impossible for that to happen over the next few hours and will leave
the mention of isolated storms for the remainder of the afternoon,
but anything that might develop should dissipate well before sunset.
Will not carry a mention of storms into tonight.

Guidance looked a little too warm on tonight slows, and given the
temperatures we are seeing as of 20Z across the area, a little too
cool for highs on Saturday.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

The long term forecast remains essentially unchanged this cycle.
Models hold the upper ridge firmly in place over Texas through
this holiday weekend, and they still develop a broad upper trough
across the northern CONUS. Afternoon highs mainly in the 95 to
around 100 range still look likely for the for Sunday, Monday, and
Tuesday periods. Then, the upper ridge axis shifts west, as an
upper trough develops across the eastern CONUS. With the flow
aloft becoming more northwesterly by mid week, continuing rain
chances for mid to late next week look reasonable. What`s more, a
medium range model blend now indicates a weak front will most
likely move into West Central Texas, sometime during the Thursday
and Thursday night time frame, and stall. So, the best rain
chances look good for Thursday and again on Friday. With increased
cloud cover and cooler temperatures at 850mb, afternoon highs
closer to seasonal normals look best for mid to late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  73  96  76  97 /   0   5   5   0
San Angelo  72  97  75  98 /   5   5   0   0
Junction  72  94  73  96 /  10  10   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99


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