Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 222057
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
357 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

A potent upper-level trough will move across the northern Plains
this evening, with a trailing trough axis extending south into
northern Mexico. Large scale ascent associated with this feature is
noted on water vapor imagery across West TX, ending north along the
warm conveyor belt. We`ve had just enough moisture to squeeze out
scattered rain showers across the Permian Basin, east into the
western portions of the Concho Valley and Big Country. Rainfall
amounts have been rather light, with most areas only recording a few
hundredths of an inch. Dewpoints have held in the mid 50s across the
western zones, where light precipitation has been more prevalent
with temperatures generally in the low to mid 70s. However, a few
areas remain in the 60s at this time.

The trough axis will move across the area tonight, bringing an end
to rain chances as a more subsident regime overspreads the area. A
slight chance of showers was retained for most of the area this
evening, then mainly west of a Haskell to San Angelo line after
midnight. Rainfall amounts will remain light. Expect overnight lows
in the mid to upper 50s. Any lingering rain showers should come to
an end late tonight. Cloud cover will gradually thin out during the
day tomorrow with light south winds and temperatures primarily in
the lower 80s.

Johnson

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)

Expecting dry conditions with a warming trend Friday into the
weekend, as an upper level high shifts east across Texas. The
upper high will weaken Sunday and shift southeast over the
northern Gulf of Mexico, as a strong upper trough moves east
across the northwestern quarter of the CONUS. South winds will
increase and become gusty Sunday into Monday with lee side
surface trough development and increased surface pressure
gradient. Monday looks to be the warmest day, as low-level
thermal ridge builds into our area ahead of approaching cold
front. A few locations could have highs around the 90 degree
mark on Monday.

The upper trough is progged to move east across the northern
Plains Monday afternoon and Monday night, sending aforementioned
cold front south into our northern counties by Tuesday morning.
The 12Z GFS and ECMWF differ with the upper trough and strength
of associated cold front. The ECMWF digs the southern portion of
the trough into North Texas and has a stronger cold frontal
passage on Tuesday, along with some chance of showers and
thunderstorms across our northern counties. While confidence in
a specific solution is not high, favor the weaker GFS version
at this time. Have too much uncertainty to add mentionable PoPs
yet with the cold front. Depending on timing with this front,
temperatures could still reach the lower/mid 80s across the
southern half of our area Tuesday. Temperatures look to be several
degrees cooler, but still above normal for Wednesday.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  58  81  59  86  60 /  20   5  10   5   5
San Angelo  56  82  56  86  57 /  20  10   5   5   5
Junction  57  83  55  85  56 /  20  10   5   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








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