Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 251715
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1215 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016


.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds are expected at all terminals
through the next 24 hours. There is a slight chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms developing this afternoon over portions of
West Central Texas...however coverage is expected to be minimal
and will not warrant mention in the TAFS.



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 637 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

Mainly VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. More
extensive afternoon clouds are expected today as additional
moisture, and a weak disturbance moves into the area. A few
isolated thunderstorms could develop this afternoon mainly near
KJCT and KBBD, so have included a VCTS group at these locations.
Thunderstorm coverage, if they develop, is expected to less
extensive farther north and west, so have kept the mention of TS
out of the rest of the sites. 20

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 412 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Not much change to the forecast for the short term from the previous
thinking. A weak disturbance in the mid and upper levels will move
into the area later today in east/southeasterly upper level flow.
With plenty of moisture and instability available in the lower
levels, this could be enough to generate a few showers and
thunderstorms across mainly eastern areas of the CWA, with the best
chances for areas southeast of a Brownwood to Sonora line, but can`t
rule out isolated activity as far west as an Ozona to San Angelo to
Abilene line. With the potential for slightly more cloud cover,
possibly precipitation, and lower heights, we should see at least a
slight decrease in the heat today, with highs mainly in the upper
90s. As weak upper level energy continues to move into and through
the area tonight, we will keep mainly slight chances in the forecast
for most of the area. Overnight lows will be mainly in the lower to
mid 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Thursday Night)

A chance of rain and cooler temperatures are in the forecast for the
middle of this week. The combination of an upper level easterly wave
and increasing tropical moisture(PW values of 1.75 to 2 inches) will
result in scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through
Thursday. Rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch are possible across much
of the area. Also, cooler temperatures will prevail with highs
mainly 90 to 95.

(Friday through Monday)

Going with mainly a dry forecast for late this week into the
weekend. However, still going with a slight chance of showers and
storms Friday and Saturday. Highs will be in the 90s with lows in
the 70s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  94  74  93 /  20  30  20  30
San Angelo  75  93  73  93 /  20  50  20  30
Junction  74  93  73  92 /  20  60  20  40

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/99


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