Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 170533 AAB
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1133 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

The forecast reasoning remains essentially the same as with the
previous (00Z) TAF package, regarding the cold frontal passage
tonight, the development of light rain, and general degradation
of conditions from south to north during the day Tuesday. Still
maintaining Prob30 groups for the possibility of thunderstorms,
lower ceilings and visibilities in the afternoon. Light rain and
fog can be expected early Tuesday night, with IFR and LIFR
condtions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 557 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions will prevail through tonight. High cloud coverage
will increase from the south this evening. A cold front will push
south across west central Texas tonight, reaching KABI by 05Z and
reaching our southern terminals of KSOA and KJCT 09Z- 10Z. Light
winds will become northeast at 8-10 knots with the frontal
passage.

A general degradation in conditions is expected, from south to
north, during the day Tuesday. Light rain will develop at our
southern terminals by mid to late morning, at KSJT around midday,
and at KABI by mid- afternoon. Cloud cover will be widespread on
Tuesday, with ceilings lowering to MVFR (below 3000 ft) by mid to
late morning at our southern terminals, at KSJT by early
afternoon, and at KABI in the late afternoon. Ceilings are
expected to drop below 1000 ft during the afternoon at our
southern terminals north to KSJT. With light rain and fog during
the afternoon, visibilities should drop to around 4 miles at most
of our TAF sites. Prob30 groups have been added, mainly for
possible thunderstorms and lower visibilities.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 317 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

A weak cold front will move into the Big Country this evening and
through the I-10 corridor midnight. While no rain is expected
tonight, an upper low moving east into the El Paso region Tuesday,
will bring lift and moisture over the front. Models indicate showers
developing Tuesday morning along the I-10 corridor spreading north
into the Big Country in the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms
possible...mainly south of I-20 Tuesday afternoon and night. Severe
storms are not expected with weak instabilities. Rainfall amounts
will generally range from 1/10 or less in the Big country to around
1/4 inch in the Concho Valley, and 1/2 inch east of the Concho
Valley. Went closer to the cooler GFS MOS guidance temperatures
Tuesday given cloudy skies and rainfall.

04

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)

A northeasterly moving upper low over central New Mexico Tuesday
night will continue the southwest flow aloft over the forecast
area. As isentropic ascent increases north of a stationary frontal
boundary located south of the CWA and weak disturbances continue
to lift northeast across the area, there remains a good chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms for most of the forecast area
Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Rain chances will diminish on
Wednesday with a slight chance remaining over our southeastern
counties during the day. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper
30s to the lower 40s and highs on Wednesday will mainly be in the
upper 50s.

Warmer and breezy weather is on tap Thursday through Saturday,
with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. An upper shortwave
system moving eastward across northern New Mexico and the
Panhandle will bring a slight chance of showers to our western
tire of counties during the day on Saturday. Otherwise, morning
lows will remain in the 40s through Sunday, cooling into the mid
and upper 30s on Monday morning. Highs on Sunday and Monday will
range from the upper 50s north to the lower 60s south.

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  37  50  40  56 /   0  30  60  10
San Angelo  40  50  41  60 /   5  50  60  10
Junction  44  52  44  61 /  10  60  60  30
Brownwood  41  53  41  56 /   5  50  70  20
Sweetwater  36  49  39  57 /   0  30  50   5
Ozona       43  51  40  61 /   5  50  60  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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