Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 270943
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
443 AM CDT Wed May 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

A few elevated showers and thunderstorms continue to form near an
outflow boundary that stretches between Robert Lee and San Saba.
The cells were moving northeast.  And these showers may continue for
a few more hours.

Another risk for severe storms this afternoon with main threats
being large hail, damaging winds, very heavy rainfall and an
isolated tornado.  The combination of high mean layer CAPE values
from 4000-5000 j/kg from the NAM model, daytime heating, plenty of
moisture and old outflow boundaries from yesterday`s convection will
set the stage for another round of scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight.  Yesterday afternoon we
had a baseball size hail report in Miles.  Also, the upper flow is
progged to become southwesterly a weak upper level disturbance will
provide additional forcing in the mid and upper levels.  High
temperatures will be similar to yesterday.

26

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)

An unsettled pattern will continue through the weekend, with
additional locally heavy rainfall possible and some possibility
for severe weather.

The chance of showers and thunderstorms continues on Thursday, when
an upper trough will approach from the southwestern states. We have
likely PoPs for Thursday night, when the 00Z GFS and ECMWF indicate
a potential for organized convection to move east across our area.

The next increased chance for showers and thunderstorms will begin
late Friday night across our northern counties, when a cold front is
expected to sag south toward that area overnight. Convection late
Friday night may also be enhanced by a weak upper level disturbance
entering northwest Texas. The cold front is progged to move south
across west central Texas on Saturday and Saturday evening, possibly
reaching the I-10 corridor by 7 PM. Decent amount of convection
should help to drive this front south, along with the flow aloft
becoming northwesterly.

The chance of showers and thunderstorms should linger into Sunday,
with northwest to north flow aloft and the possibility of a weak
disturbance entering our area. Temperatures over the weekend will
be a little cooler behind the front, especially during the day with
increased cloud cover.

Rain chances should drop off after Monday, as an upper ridge shifts
east into Texas.

19

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  88  67  83  66  84 /  30  40  40  60  40
San Angelo  90  69  83  68  87 /  30  40  40  60  30
Junction  89  69  84  69  84 /  20  20  40  60  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$








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