Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 020948
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
448 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

An upper trough with an embedded strong short wave will move across
the Southern Plains today, with an associated cold front moving
south across West Central Texas. As of 3 AM, the synoptic cold front
was moving south across the Texas Panhandle and extended from near
Amarillo, northeast into south central Kansas. The best chance for
convective development along the front will be across the eastern
half of the forecast area today and across far southeast counties
early this evening. Convective development will largely be tied to
convergence along the front, as the strongest large scale lift
remains north and east of the area. The NAM is least aggressive and
only develops convection across San Saba county, while the GFS and
some of the Hi-Res models show a little bit better coverage. The
inherited slight chance to chance POPs seem reasonable and made only
minor changes through this evening. A few strong/isolated severe
storms will possible late this afternoon and evening southeast of a
Cross Plains to Junction line, where adequate shear and a moderately
unstable airmass will exist. The main storm hazards will be large
hail and damaging winds.

Temperatures will be warm again today, especially south of the front
where afternoon highs will reach the lower 90s. Farther north across
the Big Country, highs should reach the mid and upper 80s prior to
frontal passage. Clearing skies tonight, along with a drier airmass
and light winds, will allow temperatures to fall into the middle and
upper 50s by daybreak Friday.

.LONG TERM...
/Friday through Wednesday/

Cooler temperatures are forecast Friday and Saturday followed by a
slow warm up into early next week. Cooler temperatures are forecast
across West Central Texas on Friday and Saturday. Highs will
generally be in the lower to mid 80s, with overnight lows mainly in
the 50s. The coolest temperatures are expected Saturday morning, as
good radiational cooling condition occur. The coldest readings will
be in low lying areas and river valleys, where some locations could
drop into the mid to upper 40s.

A weak cold front is forecast to move into the Big Country late
Sunday, but will only serve as a temporary wind shift before quickly
dissipating. A slow warm up in forecast through the middle of next
week, with highs approaching the upper 80s to near 90 by Tuesday.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  88  54  80  49  80 /  20  10   0   0   0
San Angelo  94  54  82  49  82 /  10  10   0   0   0
Junction  91  54  85  47  83 /  20  20   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

JW/Daniels





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