Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 090536
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1136 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Look for VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Winds by 18Z
tomorrow will be mainly from the south around 10 knots or less.
After sunset tomorrow, winds will be light and variable.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 548 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

look for VFR conditions to dominate for the next 24 hours.
Ceilings at San Angelo, currently at MVFR levels, will improve to
VFR during the next few hours. Winds this evening will decrease to
around 6 knots or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

An Arctic airmass remains entrenched across West Central Texas,
resulting in afternoon temperatures mainly in the upper 20s to mid
30s. A wintry mix of light sleet, snow, and rain is quickly
diminishing, with all precipitation ending by early this evening.
Cloud cover will be the determining factor on exactly how cold
temperatures get overnight. Mid level cloud cover may persist across
our western/southern counties through much of the overnight period,
although partly cloudy to clear skies are expected across most of
the rest of the forecast area. Overnight lows will mainly be in the
low to mid 20s, although a few locations may drop into the upper
teens. Slightly warmer temperatures can be expected across locations
where cloud cover persists into the morning hours. Surface high
pressure will shift east of the area on Friday, with winds becoming
south at 5 to 10 mph. Highs on Friday will mainly be in the low to
mid 40s.

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)

.Warmer temperatures this weekend, followed by a weak cold
front Monday night and a stronger front by midweek...

Dry and warmer weather is slated for this weekend, with south to
southwest winds returning to the area. Temperatures will be cold
again Friday night under clear skies and light winds, with lows
in the upper 20s. Breezy and warmer conditions will develop over
the weekend, with highs on Saturday in the lower and middle 50s
and highs Sunday in the mid and upper 60s. Models show a weak cold
front moving into the area late Sunday night and early Monday,
bringing cooler temperatures to mainly the northern half of the
area for early next week.

The medium range models continue to show a much stronger cold
front affecting the area next Tuesday and Tuesday night. The GFS
maintains a much deeper upper trough across the northern Plains
early next week and drives another arctic front south across the
area Tuesday night. However, the GFS ensemble continues to show a
large spread in temperatures Tuesday night and Wednesday. The
ECMWF is weaker with the upper system and not near as cold as the
GFS and brings the front through the area late Tuesday. For now,
will maintain consistency with the previous forecast and show the
front moving across the area late Tuesday/Tuesday night, with
highs mainly in the 40s for Wednesday and in the 40s and lower 50s
for next Thursday. No precipitation is expected with the front and
will maintain a dry forecast for the remainder of the extended
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  20  43  30  55 /   5   0   0   0
San Angelo  21  46  29  56 /   5   0   0   0
Junction  22  46  28  53 /   5   0   0   5
Brownwood  22  44  28  53 /   5   0   0   5
Sweetwater  23  41  29  54 /   5   0   0   0
Ozona       23  44  28  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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