852
FXUS64 KSJT 212315
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
615 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

As of 130 PM, the dry line was oriented northeast to southwest and
was pushing towards San Angelo and Abilene. The southeastern portion
of our forecast area, including the Heartland and Northwest Hill
Country is under a slight risk for severe weather today. The dry
line could act as a trigger for convective development this evening
in the previously mentioned area. Right now, CAMs are keeping storm
coverage pretty sparse for our area, so precipitation chances are on
the low end for this evening. However, with the environment we have
in place, any storm that can get going will have the potential for
very large hail and gusty winds.

A cold front will approach from the north tomorrow, likely making
its way into the southern Big Country or northern Concho Valley by
the mid afternoon. Behind the front high temperatures will drop into
the mid 80s to low 90s, while areas further south are in the mid to
upper 90s. We do have the potential for severe weather tomorrow.
Ahead of the front, instability will be very high (CAPE values in
excess of 3500 J/Kg) and wind shear will be significant (>50kts).
Storms could start as early as the mid morning hours, as the lifting
from the front might be enough to get storms going despite the cap
in place. These early elevated storms in the Big COuntry will pose a
threat for large hail. As we continue into the afternoon and the cap
erodes, additional storms could develop with all severe modes
possible including, very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds.
There will also be the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding
under thunderstorms, as PW values approach 2 inches.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

An unsettled pattern looks to continue Wednesday night through
Thursday.  The front that will have pushed into central Texas on
Wednesday should retreat northward on Thursday morning and allow a
warm and unstable airmass to persist over the region. Thunderstorm
chances on Thursday should be focused mainly across north-central
Texas, thanks to mid-level impulses embedded in the quasi-zonal
flow. However, there will be some potential for severe storms
across the eastern Big Country and down to Brownwood. Further
southwest, storms will struggle to develop given the lack of upper
dynamics.

A hot and dry pattern is likely to take over for Friday through
Sunday.  Although the upper-level pattern should remain generally
the same, the next couple of systems moving through the country`s
midsection are likely to bring a drier airmass into west central
Texas during this time.  A weak frontal boundary looks to stall
around I-20 on Friday.  This is likely to hold temperatures below
100 degrees for the Big Country on Friday afternoon, but no such
luck for areas further south.  Otherwise, searing, and way-too-soon
triple-digit heat should take over for the holiday weekend.

Getting into early next week, models show that a stronger cold front
should drop into Texas for Monday and Tuesday. There is still
uncertainty in this solution, evidenced by the MEX guidance showing
highs in the upper 80s and the ECX guidance showing 100. Regardless,
we should hopefully see an increase in clouds and chances for
showers. If nothing else, the front could provide at least some
temporary relief from the heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT Tue May 21 2024

VFR ceilings are expected through tonight with some MVFR ceilings
redeveloping overnight tonight, and visibility reductions mainly
at KABI under any thunderstorms that may develop Wednesday
morning. Low clouds are expected to return to KJCT, KSOA, KBBD
during the overnight period, and to KSJT and KABI during the
morning hours Wednesday. A cold front will move south through the
area tomorrow, switching winds to the north to northeast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     71  87  68  92 /  10  50  20  20
San Angelo  73  95  70  98 /  10  20  20  10
Junction    75  95  71  98 /  10  30  20  10
Brownwood   73  91  70  89 /  20  50  30  30
Sweetwater  69  87  67  96 /  10  50  20  10
Ozona       73  96  70  99 /  10  10  20  10
Brady       73  93  70  91 /  10  40  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...TP