Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
FXUS64 KSJT 230947
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
347 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2014
(Today and Tonight)
A Pacific front/dryline will move through the area this morning.
A tightening surface pressure gradient will result in west winds
increasing to 20 to 30 mph, with higher gusts. A Wind Advisory was
issued for most areas north of a Sonora, to Menard, to San Saba
line, from noon through 6 PM. Winds will gradually decrease by
late afternoon, then become northwest as a cold front moves
through the area. Highs today will be above seasonal normals,
ranging from the upper 60s across much of the Big Country, to the
mid 70s across the Interstate 10 corridor. An upper level trough
will swing across the Plains today, sending the aforementioned
cold front into the Big Country this afternoon, and through the
rest of the area this evening. Cooler temperatures are forecast
overnight, with lows in the mid to upper 30s.
(Monday through Saturday)
A fast moving trough axis will move into the area Monday
afternoon and evening, swinging across west central Texas by
Tuesday afternoon. This trough will send a cold front into the
area Tuesday as well. However, it will be a relatively weak cold
front, so temperatures will be similar to Monday`s with highs in
the upper 50s to lower 60s both days.
Beginning Tuesday, upper level northwest flow will dominate the
weather through the middle of the week. The pattern will slowly
transition to low amplitude ridging across the southwestern U. S.
This will bring dry and warmer conditions to the area for the
upcoming work week. Temperatures are expected to be noticeably
warmer from Wednesday through the end of the week. 850mb
temperatures in the 0 to 5 degree Celsius range Monday and Tuesday
will warm into the double digits by Wednesday, and to near 15
degrees Celsius by Thursday according to the ECMWF, which would
push highs into the mid 70s. With this in mind, have trended
temperatures warmer by a few degrees across the area for the
second half of the week into the mid to upper 60s, with a few
lower 70s possible. These temperatures may need to be bumped up
more if this trend continues.
Near critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon
across much of West Central Texas, especially the western Concho
Valley and northern Edwards Plateau. West northwest winds will
increase to 15 to 25 mph, with gusts over 35 mph, while minimum
relative humidity values drop to 20 to 25 percent. In addition,
recent freezing temperatures have resulted in most fuels being
cured across the area. Although a few sites may briefly reach Red
Flag criteria, the duration should be short enough to preclude the
issuance of a Red Flag warning at this time.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 70 35 59 33 55 / 0 0 0 0 0
San Angelo 75 34 60 32 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Junction 77 35 63 30 61 / 0 0 5 5 0
WIND ADVISORY from Noon today to 6 PM CST this evening FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: Brown...Callahan...Coke...Coleman...Concho...