Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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FXUS64 KSJT 060423
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1123 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

No major changes this forecast cycle. Stratus is already
developing across the Texas Hill Country. Our southern three
terminals should be under MVFR ceilings by 08Z, and VFR return
still looks likely by 18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for stratus, with mainly MVFR ceilings, to again return to
much of West Central Texas tonight. Model data indicate the best
forecast approach, regrading MVFR ceilings, is persistence. Thus,
expect MVFR ceilings later tonight at Sonora, Junction, and Brady.
By 18Z, VFR conditions will again dominate all of West Central
Texas.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

The forecast area will remain dry through tonight while under a weak
positively tilted upper level ridge centered in northern Mexico. As
the upper ridge begins to break down tomorrow an area precipitation
west of our area will begin expanding eastward. Have introduced a
slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms by Monday
afternoon over the extreme western portions of our southwestern
counties as the area of precipitation edges into our area.  The
remainder of the forecast area will continue to  by dry with
afternoon highs in the lower to mid 90s after Monday morning lows in
the lower 70s. Winds will remain southerly 10 to 15 MPH.

15

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)

.Heavy rain possible for the northern areas Tuesday and
Wednesday...

As the ridge continues to break down...a shortwave trough develops
and heads southeastward across north Texas on Tuesday. In
addition, a weak cold front will drift southward across the
Panhandle into northwest Texas Tuesday. Expect Rain chances to
increase across the area beginning Monday night and continuing
through Tuesday and Wednesday as the stalled front lingers over
north Texas. Herd to tell at this point exactly how far south the
front will go...as it will be partially dependent on the amount of
convection that develops along the front. Even if the front
remains to the north...will likely still see storms develop across
much of the forecast area from outflow boundaries from
storms to the north. Have gone with chance to likely PoPs across much
of the Big Country and Concho Valley. Given the high amount of
moisture over the area...we could see some heavy rainfall from
slow moving storms...with localized flash flooding
possible...especially along and north of the Interstate 20
Corridor. Expecting cooler temperatures for Monday and Tuesday
with extensive cloud cover and precipitation.

Precipitation ends across the area on Wednesday as the remnants of
the front dissipate and a ridge aloft begins to build back into
west Texas. Expect to see warmer and drier weather to return
Thursday into the weekend with afternoon highs in the mid 90s.

08

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  74  93  73  88  72 /  10  10  30  40  40
San Angelo  74  92  74  89  72 /  10  10  20  30  30
Junction  73  91  74  89  72 /  10   5  10  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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