Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KSJT 311105
AFDSJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
605 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ADDED VCSH AT
THE KABI/KBBD/KJCT TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z AND 01Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

SHORT TERM(TIME PERIOD)...

(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

A QUIET MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
ALSO, DEWPOINTS WERE ONLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY AND I-
10 CORRIDOR, WITH 60S ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWFA.

FOR TODAY, WILL SEE HOT CONDITIONS AGAIN DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO OUR WEST AND DRYING VEGETATION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE 100. HOWEVER, A LITTLE GOOD NEWS AS A FEW AREAS
MAY SEE SOME RAINFALL. THE COMBINATION OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW AND A SOME INSTABILITY(A WEAKER CAP) WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON, AS
DEPICTED BY HI RES MODELS(HRRR AND TEXAS TECH WRF). THE BEST
COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A HASKELL TO ABILENE
TO JUNCTION LINE DUE TO BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS AREA. THE
MAIN HAZARDS FROM STORMS WILL BE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS.

FOR TONIGHT, WILL KEEP THE SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS GOING ACROSS THE
AREA. THE ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE ORGANIZED ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AS
THE GFS MODEL IS INDICATING A WEAK MCS DEVELOPING AND MOVING INTO
THE BIG COUNTRY AFTER 06Z. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

21

LONG TERM(TIME PERIOD)...
(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY,
WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. THUNDERSTORMS AND ASSOCIATED INCREASED
CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER,
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 90S. STORM COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE
SPARSE SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 90S, AS THE
UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY REDEVELOPS EASTWARD.

FOR THE WORK WEEK, UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL RISE BACK
INTO THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MANY AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS, WEDNESDAY
INTO FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES LOOK REMOTE, THOUGH A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
IN EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA (FISHER COUNTY) MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  99  74  94  75 /  20  20  30  20
SAN ANGELO 101  72  97  74 /  20  20  30  10
JUNCTION 100  72  96  73 /  30  20  30   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99/99



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