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000
FXUS64 KSJT 270441
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1141 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017


.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Showers and thunderstorm complex that moved southeast into the
Hill Country this evening, will likely disrupt return flow of low
level moisture and stratus tonight. Thus pushed I-10 MVFR stratus
return to 12Z. Patchy light fog is also likely at KSOA, KJCT,
KBBD due to wet vegetation and narrow dew point separation. An
isolated thunderstorms possible at KJCT in the afternoon, but
potential is too low to include in terminal.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 732 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

UPDATE...
Increased POPs this over southeast counties this evening.

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms are affecting mainly southern and
southeast sections early this evening, with the heaviest activity
over Mcculloch and Mason counties. Hi-Res models show this
activity lingering through the mid to late evening hours before
weakening. POPs were increased generally along and south of a San
Saba to Sonora line for the remainder of the evening hours. Also
tweaked temps and dewpoints to account for trends.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 620 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Band of thunderstorms will affect KBBD and KJCT trough 2Z-3Z as
they move slowly east. KSOA will see gusty north winds for a
couple hours as a thunderstorm outflow boundary moves through
just before 00Z. MVFR stratus returns to KSOA, KJCT, and KBBD
late night through late morning as a warm front moves through.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)

Main forecast challenge is coverage and location of convection
mainly this afternoon and evening. Currently, radar indicating
thunderstorms between San Angelo and Sweetwater. The combination of
lift associated with weak upper level disturbances and some
instability will probably result in scattered showers and
thunderstorms across much of the area tonight. The best coverage
looks to mainly south of the I-20 corridor. A few pulse type severe
storms are possible. The main hazards will be damaging winds, hail
and dangerous lightning.

For Tuesday, The better chance of rain will be mainly southeast of a
Brownwood to Sonora line, mainly afternoon heating/instability
driven. The severe threat will be very low, with the main hazard
being dangerous lightning from any storms. Highs will be in the
upper 80s to lower 90s.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

Upper level ridging will strengthen over the region once again by
the middle of the week, leading to hotter and drier conditions.
High temps should once again approach and/or exceed 100 degrees
towards the end of the week, mostly across western portions of the
forecast area, with mid to upper 90s elsewhere. The only decent
chance of rain will come Friday night as the tail end of an upper
trough/front may bring a few showers to the northern Big Country
and even then, the chances are rather small. Elsewhere will likely
remain dry through the duration of the long term period. By the
weekend and into early next week, the ridge will flatten/weaken
somewhat as a series of upper level troughs passing north of us
and this will bring temps down slightly, generally in the
mid/upper 90s.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  67  89  70  94 /  30  20   5   5
San Angelo  69  90  70  96 /  40  20  10   5
Junction  69  88  68  92 /  60  30  10  10
Brownwood  68  88  68  91 /  40  20   5   5
Sweetwater  67  90  69  94 /  30  20   5   5
Ozona       68  89  68  92 /  40  20  10   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/04