Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43

FXUS64 KSJT 242051 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
350 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

(Tonight and Thursday)

Generally clear skies are forecast overnight across West Central
Texas, with low temperatures in the low to mid 60s. A lee trough
will develop across eastern New Mexico and Colorado on Thursday,
resulting in an increased surface pressure gradient over the forecast
area. Southwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph, with higher
gusts, by late morning. The southwest winds in combination with weak
upper level ridging will result in unseasonably hot temperatures
across the region. Highs on Thursday will range from the mid 90s to
near 100 degrees at most locations.


(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)

Our area will have west-southwest flow aloft Friday and Saturday,
as flat upper level ridging develops over the northern Gulf of
Mexico and an upper shortwave trough moves from the Intermountain
West to the central Rockies. The abrupt change to much hotter
conditions will continue Friday and Saturday, with strong 850mb
thermal ridging across our area. Highs are expected to be in the
upper 90s to 102 degrees on Friday, and 95-100 on Saturday.

Low-level moisture will return Friday and to a greater extent
Saturday, with precipitable water values increasing to above 1.5
inches across the southeastern part of our area. A dryline will
mix east across parts of west central Texas and should extend
roughly from Cross Plains to Eldorado to west of Sonora by late
afternoon. Will have a conditional risk for strong/severe
thunderstorms ahead of the dryline late Saturday afternoon and
evening, with strong instability but strong capping. Vertical
shear will be supportive of severe storms if the cap can be
broken. Carrying slight chance PoPs generally along/east of a
Throckmorton to Junction line late Saturday afternoon and evening.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase Sunday,
when a cold front is progged to push south across west central
Texas. With increased cloud cover and rain chances, temperatures
will be cooler Sunday with highs expected to be mostly in the mid
80s. Some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across
our southern counties, where instability will be greater prior to
frontal passage. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible for
our southern counties.

Rain chances will continue into next week with showers and
thunderstorms possible, but have increased uncertainty in
placement and timing. The overall setup indicates embedded
disturbances aloft entering our area, with isentropic lift.
Temperatures should be near to slightly below normal for the final
week of May, with highs forecast to be in the lower to mid 80s
and lows in the lower to mid 60s.



Abilene  63  98  72 100 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  62 100  71 101 /   0   0   0   0
Junction  61  94  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  58  95  71  99 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  62  99  71  99 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       60  96  70  99 /   0   0   0   0



$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.