605
FXUS66 KSTO 052022
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
122 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024


.SYNOPSIS...
Hot weather will continue again tomorrow with some improvement in
central parts of the valley. Further cooling Friday into weekend.
Triple digit heat returns again to north SacValley early next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Short-Term Discussion (Today THROUGH Saturday)...
Forecast on track for hottest day of the week to be today. Things
also still on track for continued hot with major heat risk values
tomorrow. On short flow will provide some relief to delta/central
valley locations this evening and also keep temperatures from
getting to values as high as today. Only a bit of reprieve in
Northern Sacramento Valley Thursday.

Friday and Saturday...upper level ridge of high pressure continue
to push to the east and decrease in intensity as we become more
under the influence of a area of low pressure over the Gulf of
Alaska with associated trough to the south off shore of
California. This will increase westerly flow and lower over
heights to continue with cooling trend...but still above normal
for this time of the year.

To view the latest HeatRisk, please visit
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk/

To view current water temperatures, please visit
www.cnrfc.noaa.gov

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)...
Ensemble cluster showing pretty good agreement that overall not a
super impactful pattern should be in place for the extended. Most
agreed upon pattern not too much different from outliers, that
being some ridging over Pacific Northwest/Montana with weak
troughing to our south. Northern Sacramento Valley will likely be
in a weak northerly flow at the surface which will lead to some
good warning there and latest HeatRisk values supporting major
levels once again. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index not too excited
for this so confidence not super high right now. Will see what
trends do but wouldn`t be surprised if things come down a little
or at least level out.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevail over interior NorCal through
the forecast period. Light to breezy north to west winds through
this afternoon, shift to a south to west direction this evening,
becoming generally light overnight into Thursday. Gusts to 20 kts
in the Delta and vicinity 21z through 06z.


&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Thursday for Carquinez
Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Motherlode-Mountains
Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa County-Northeast
Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Northern
San Joaquin Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County-
Southern Sacramento Valley.

&&

$$