573
FXUS62 KTAE 270526
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
126 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 949 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Updates don`t appear necessary this evening, the forecast looks
like it`s on track.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

A quiet day continues across the forecast area this afternoon with
temperatures in the lower 90s. Thanks to ridging, we`re seeing
subsidence across the area, suppressing any shower or storm
development this afternoon. However, the abundantly moist
environment will contribute to some fog formation over the eastern
Big Bend and I-75 corridor of Georgia late tonight into Monday
morning where winds become light to calm. Farther to the west, fog
formation appears less likely as winds will be a bit elevated ahead
of our approaching system. Lows tonight will be very warm in the
lower to middle 70s.

Memorial Day looks to be a potentially active day, but the caveat is
the coverage of storms may not be great. A shortwave passes through
the area during the day Monday, though ridging tries to hold on in
the eastern parts of our area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will develop in an environment that is support for strong to severe
storms. Deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt, SBCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg, and
DCAPE of 800-1100 J/kg thanks to the presence of mid-level dry air
will result in a potential for damaging wind gusts, either in the
form of individual downbursts or a cold-pool driven multicell
cluster(s). In addition to the damaging wind potential, there`s also
the potential for large hail given steep mid-level lapse rates
around 7 C/km and cooling mid-level temperatures as the shortwave
approaches. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined areas from
Dothan to Albany northwestward in a Slight Risk of severe weather
(level 2 of 5) with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) to a line from
DeFuniak Springs to Moultrie. South of I-10, it may be more
difficult for storms to develop given that these areas will be under
a bit more influence from the ridge and dry air and are a bit
further from the greatest lift.

Not everyone will see storms tomorrow, but storms that develop
could bring strong winds, frequent lightning, and hail. Given the
holiday, many people may be trying to hold outdoor events. Make
sure you have ways to receive weather updates, keep an eye to the
sky, and remember: "When Thunder Roars, Go Indoors!" High
temperatures tomorrow will be in the lower to middle 90s. Heat
index values of 100-105 are possible south of I-10.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Behind the front on Tuesday, a drier airmass will move into the
area with northwest flow. There could still be an isolated
seabreeze storm across the southeast big bend, but that would be
about it.

Of course, late season cold fronts do not really bring much cooler
air. High temperatures are still expected to reach the 90s for most
areas on Tuesday. The humidity will just be a bit lower.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

There are some differences in the guidance on Wednesday with the 12z
GFS bringing another upper level impulse into the area with
scattered convection. Meanwhile, the ECMWF remains dry. The
differences manifest from how convective clusters in the Plains
develop and propagate. Thus, confidence is fairly low. However, the
ensemble guidance favors only low PoPs on Wednesday, currently less
than 20 percent. Beyond Wednesday, surface high pressure will move
from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the coastal Carolinas. This
will bring north and northeast breezes at the surface, which will
gradually clock around to easterly and southeasterly. These factors
favor a mainly dry forecast with PoPs around 20 percent or less.
Highs will generally range from the mid 80s to lower 90s with
overnight lows in the mid 60s to near 70.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

Clouds are forecast to develop throughout the overnight hours with
MVFR to IFR conditions anticipated by 09Z to 10Z and linger into
mid-Monday morning. There is also the chance for some fog in and
around the TAF sites with the best chance for that happening near
KTLH and KVLD where some TEMPO groups were included. The forecast
becomes a bit less certain beyond 16Z to 18Z as a cluster of
showers and thunderstorms is forecast to be moving through the
southeast and nearing our northern TAF sites around that time. As
of now, have included some VCTS around the time with greatest
confidence. Ceilings are forecast to be VFR for most of the TAF
period outside of any showers or storms. Winds will generally be
out of the south to southwest through the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

A late season cold front will move towards the waters Monday into
Monday night. Gentle to moderate westerly breezes will follow the
front on Tuesday, followed by a northwest turn on Tuesday night.
High pressure will pass by well north of the waters from Wednesday
through Friday, causing winds to gradually clock around from
northerly to easterly by the end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

High mixing heights and increasing southwesterly transport winds
will result in high dispersions across southwest Georgia and the
Florida Big Bend. Scattered thunderstorms will develop in the
afternoon, mainly north of I-10. These storms will be capable of
producing strong, erratic wind gusts and frequent lightning. Drier
air filters in Tuesday and Wednesday behind a cold front. Winds
will become more northwesterly and RH will drop into the 30s.
Dispersions will still be high across southwest Georgia and the
Big Bend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

Flood waters from heavy rainfall back on May 17 and 18 are now
routing into the slow-responding Suwannee River, which will see
rises in the days ahead. All other rivers continue to fall.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected on Monday afternoon, mainly
over our Alabama and Georgia basins. Most places will not experience
hydrologically significant rainfall, but isolated rainfall amounts
of 2 to 3 inches are possible. This could bring localized short-
duration runoff issues.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   72  93  70  93 /  30  10  10  10
Panama City   74  91  73  89 /  20  10  10  10
Dothan        71  91  69  89 /  20   0   0  10
Albany        70  91  68  90 /  30   0   0  10
Valdosta      72  92  69  92 /  40  10   0  10
Cross City    72  92  70  93 /  20  40  10  10
Apalachicola  76  89  74  88 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM CDT early this morning for
     FLZ112.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Young
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM....DVD
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...DVD