Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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311 FXUS62 KTAE 251742 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 142 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1029 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Our 12z sounding shows an adequate environment for a few strong to severe storms this afternoon with 25 kt of deep-layer shear with 1200+ J/kg of DCAPE. Given the rather summer-like sounding with ample dry air aloft, thunderstorms that develop this afternoon will be capable of producing gusty to perhaps damaging winds, frequent lightning, and some hail. Thunderstorms have already formed across northwestern GA into east central AL, and these should move generally southeastward. The greatest chance for strong to severe storms will be mainly over our AL and GA counties, but can`t rule out a few north of I-10 in the FL counties, which is where the Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) outlined. The timeframe for strong to severe storms will be 2-10pm ET/1-9pm. With many people partaking in outdoor activities this holiday weekend, keep an eye to the sky and have multiple ways to receive weather alerts. When thunder roars, go indoors! If you can hear thunder, you`re close enough to be struck by lightning. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 The threat for severe weather remains for this afternoon and evening with SPC maintaining a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across the region near and to the north of I-10, including portions of the FL counties, and Southeast AL and Southwest GA. There is uncertainty on the coverage and timing of the activity. One shortwave moves through the region late this morning into the early afternoon, and while that could lead to a brief shower, it does not have much moisture to work with. The next shortwave approaching late this afternoon and evening will have greater moisture and instability to work with, given increase PWAT to around 1.8 inches and SB CAPE of 2-3k J/kg. Model soundings show a bit of a mid-level cap in the wake of the first shortwave, but that should break eventually as we reach convective temperatures and the next shortwave provides a source of lift. CAMS show thunderstorms organizing into a loosely formed line/complex, given Bulk Shear around 40 kts, and propagating southeastward into the area late this afternoon and evening. Some drier air aloft could limit the coverage of storms along the line, and there is some uncertainty in timing. The most likely scenario is for storms to enter the region during the early to middle afternoon and move southeast through the evening. The main threat is isolated damaging wind gusts in excess of 50 mph, and isolated large hail (1"). Meanwhile, ahead of this, showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms will develop, especially in the FL counties during the afternoon. These storms would be capable of wind gusts of 30 mph, and are not associated with the aforementioned line/complex, which should drive the main severe weather threat. Those with outdoor plans are encouraged to monitor the weather, adjust your plans accordingly, and head indoors if you hear thunder or receive a warning. Showers and thunderstorms will abate early tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Sunday through Sunday night) Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 There will be a return to dry weather on Sunday, so that looks to be the pick of the weekend for outdoor plans. With above average temperatures in the 90s, the Apparent Temperature/Heat Index will approach 100 degrees at times, especially in the FL counties, increasing heat stress for those outdoors that do not take proper precautions. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 The main concern is the potential for another round of severe weather early next week. A cold front will approach on Monday and move through the region Monday night into Tuesday. There looks to be sufficient instability and shear for at least isolated severe thunderstorms in the late Monday into Tuesday time frame. SPC has outlooked portions of the region in a marginal risk. After the front moves through, dry weather is expected midweek. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon, and they may congeal into clusters with gusty convective winds and possibly hail this afternoon and evening. The higher coverage will be along and north of I-10. Late tonight, the air mass will support development of patchy fog and low stratus with IFR conditions possible. Any fog or stratus that develops is expected to scatter out by mid-morning on Sunday with VFR returning. && .MARINE... Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Light winds and low seas will continue through the holiday weekend. The lone exception will be if today`s thunderstorms can make it far enough south to impact winds and seas over the Gulf. Therefore, locally higher winds and seas cannot be ruled out near and within thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. West to southwest winds will increase ahead of an approaching frontal boundary on Monday and Tuesday, with seas increasing to around 2 to possibly 3 feet in the offshore waters. The front will also bring a chance of showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday. More tranquil weather will settle into the waters on Wednesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 The combination of West transport winds around 10 to 15 mph and mixing heights around 5,000 feet will lead to high dispersions this afternoon mainly near the I-75 corridor of GA. By late this afternoon and evening, a complex of thunderstorms is expected to move southeastward through much of the region, with frequent lightning and gusty, erratic winds. On Sunday, the combination of Southwest transport winds around 10 to 15 mph and mixing heights of 5,000 to 6,000 feet will lead to high dispersions during the afternoon afternoon across much of the region north of I-10, which includes portions of the FL counties, and much of Southeast AL and Southwest GA. Dry weather is expected on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be above average this weekend into early next week, and when factoring in humidity, the Apparent Temperature/ Heat Index will be in the mid to upper 90s. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 232 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024 Portions of the Withlacoochee river basins remains in minor flood as from last weeks storms. With the Withlacoochee slowly draining into the Suwanee, we could see some rises reaching minor flooding on portions of the Suwanee in the coming week. Overall, outside of the possible points along the Suwanee reaching flood, no other river basins are expected to reach flood stage. Rainfall with the storms expected this afternoon and evening could reach between 0.5" and 1" for the bounded area west of the Flint River and north of I-10, which is mainly Southeast Alabama. But there is the potential for locally higher amounts around 3 inches, mainly along a corridor from roughly Dothan to Valdosta. That would result in localized poor drainage flooding, but the potential for flash flooding is low. Looking ahead, the next chance of rainfall is with the approach and passage of a cold front Monday into Tuesday, with average rainfall amounts less than one inch. From mid to late next week, our summer rain season will begin to get underway with chances for daily seabreeze convection increasing. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 92 72 93 71 / 40 30 0 0 Panama City 88 75 86 75 / 10 10 0 0 Dothan 89 72 91 72 / 30 30 0 0 Albany 92 72 92 71 / 50 10 0 0 Valdosta 92 72 94 71 / 40 20 0 0 Cross City 94 71 91 69 / 10 20 0 0 Apalachicola 85 75 85 76 / 10 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ112. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LF SHORT TERM...LF LONG TERM....LF AVIATION...DVD MARINE...LF FIRE WEATHER...LF HYDROLOGY...LF