974
FXUS62 KTAE 250539
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
139 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Forecast is on track. Only minor updates have been made. It is
possible for a few light showers in our Alabama counties this
evening but, PoPs remain around 20%.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon into
the evening hours. The best chance of seeing a thunderstorm will
be in our Alabama and Georgia counties. Temperatures through the
rest of the afternoon are expected to be in the upper 80s to
around 90 with dew points generally in the mid/upper 60s inland,
low 70s at the coast. These values equate to heat indexes in the
91 to 96 degree range. Overnight lows tonight will average in the
low 70s inland, mid 70s near the coast. Low clouds and patchy fog
may develop over some areas overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 402 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

A building mid/upper ridge will place our region in a northwest
flow regime aloft. Disturbances embedded in the flow will move
southeastward along the periphery of the ridge. One of these
disturbances is expected to bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening. We opted to increase
the chance of showers/thunderstorms from 20-30% to 30-40% for
Saturday afternoon. Rain chances are lower near the coast. Given
the moisture, shear, and instability parameters, we cannot rule
out isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC has placed much
of the region along and north of I-10 in a Marginal Risk of
severe weather. Isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail are
possible.

The other story this weekend will be the building heat thanks to the
aforementioned ridge. Higher dew points on Saturday will boost
heat index values up to 100 degrees while actual afternoon
temperatures average in the low 90s. By Sunday, the ridge builds
further bringing both good and bad news. The good news entails a
much lower chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms. The bad
news is we will likely add another degree or two or three to your
afternoon temperatures and heat index values. Practicing heat
safety (drinking plenty of water, wearing light colored clothing,
etc..) will be a must for those of you enjoying your holiday
weekend outdoors.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

The temperature outlook for Memorial Day and Tuesday is very
similar to Sunday with highs averaging in the low/mid 90s and heat
index values approaching 100 degrees. There is a 20-30% chance of
afternoon showers and thunderstorms north of I-10 on Monday due
to an approaching frontal boundary. The front brings a better
chance of showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday (~30-40%). Once again,
shear and instability parameters will be sufficient for a few
strong thunderstorms. Drier conditions are expected in the front`s
wake. The early outlook for next Wednesday and Thursday features
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with afternoon dew points
falling into the 50s and 60s (lower humidity). The drier air
would allow for cooler nights, with inland overnight lows in the
mid/upper 60s, low 70s at the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 133 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

TAFs start out VFR early this morning. Within a couple hours of
sunrise this morning, expect another round of LIFR in fog/low
clouds at DHN and TLH. A brief period of MVFR vsbys in fog is
possible at DHN, while fog may develop invof ECP. Once the fog/
low clouds lift by 12-14Z, expect VFR. Attention then turns to
a complex of thunderstorms expected to move southeast into the
region. Highest confidence in impacts is at ABY, DHN, and VLD,
where TSRA is depicted in TEMPO groups late this aftn/evening.
Less confidence in TSRA at ECP and TLH, with VCTS and a TEMPO
for TSRA, respectively. Winds generally Southwest around 5 to
10 kts today, with the exception of higher gusts in TSRA, which
will be refined in subsequent TAFs if needed.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 250 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Light winds and low seas will continue through the holiday
weekend. The lone exception will be if Saturday`s thunderstorms
can make it far enough south to impact winds and seas over the
Gulf. Therefore, locally higher winds and seas cannot be ruled out
near and within thunderstorms on Saturday. West to southwest winds
may increase somewhat ahead of an approaching frontal boundary on
Monday and Tuesday. The front will also bring a chance of a few
showers/thunderstorms. Quiet weather, light winds, and low seas
should prevail in the front`s wake on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 707 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Breezy southwesterly transport winds and high mixing heights will
likely lead to high dispersions across the area both Sunday and
Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the region Saturday afternoon with gusty winds, lightning, and
small hail possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 209 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Portions of the Withlacoochee, Ochlockonee, and Choctawhatchee
river basins continue to remain in minor flood as they drain from
last weeks storms. Some points along the Ochlockonee could fall
below flood stage this morning. With the Withlacoochee slowly
draining into the Suwanee, we could see some rises reaching minor
flooding on portions of the Suwanee in the coming week. Overall,
outside of the possible points along the Suwanee reaching flood in
the next week, no other river basins are expected to reach flood
stage this week.

Widespread rainfall totals over the next 7 days will generally
remain around 0.5 inches or less, with portions of SE Alabama
potentially reaching 1 inch of QPF in the next week. This amount
of rainfall is hydrologically insignificant, and will not lead to
additional riverine flooding concerns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   92  72  92  71 /  30  20   0   0
Panama City   87  74  87  75 /  10   0   0   0
Dothan        91  72  92  72 /  30  20   0   0
Albany        90  71  92  71 /  40  10  10   0
Valdosta      92  72  94  71 /  40  30  10   0
Cross City    90  71  92  70 /  10  20  10   0
Apalachicola  86  75  85  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HGX
SHORT TERM...HGX
LONG TERM....HGX
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Bunker