076
FXUS62 KTAE 140052
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
852 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 850 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Lowered rain chances across the Southeast Florida Big Bend for
tonight based on latest trends. Otherwise, the forecast is on
track.


&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Upper level troughing will slowly give way to high pressure building
in from the west. At the surface, high pressure builds which
combined with the upper level trough, should lead to suppressed
convection. Should any storms develop, we`re expecting them to
generally be south of I-10 and along the sea breeze. But confidence
is low in that happening. Tomorrow will be the beginning of the
warming trend. Highs will make it into the mid 90s for much the
region, with feels like temperatures in the mid to upper 90s for SE
AL and SW GA. FL counties` feels like temperatures will higher, in
the upper 90s to low 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday night through Saturday night)
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A strong mid-upper ridge building from the west ushers in hazardous
heat conditions through the weekend. Inland air temperatures are
forecast to peak around 100 degrees under mostly strong mid-June
sunshine. These values are much warmer than normal for this time
of year, but much less than the daily record maximum from the
brutal June 15, 2011 heat. Factoring 60s & 70s dew points yield
heat indices ranging from 104-110, which mostly meets our local
advisory criteria. If trends continue or increase, then our first
Heat Advisory could be issued as soon as Friday. Our FL counties
would be the most likely targets. Isolated afternoon
showers/thunderstorms are possible along the seabreeze zone with
the best chances in the Eastern Big Bend. Muggy overnight lows in
the 70s won`t provide much relief.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Hot weather continues into early next week as the aforementioned
ridge pivots through the region. Sunday`s high-temperature forecast
is a touch lower than Saturday with widespread upper 90s (isolated
100) away from the immediate coast. Heat indices range from about
101-107. We gradually trend "cooler" each successive day in response
to the center of a stout upper anti-cyclone shifting to the Mid-
Atlantic states. Meanwhile, global models/ensembles continue to
highlight solid potential for tropical development in the Bay of
Campeche that would threaten Mexico. This synoptic pattern yields a
brisk easterly flow regime with an increasing pressure gradient
across the Gulf. A plethora of tropical moisture and enhanced
Atlantic seabreeze supports daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms, especially along/south of the FL state line. Low to
mid 70s for minimum temperatures will be common through the long-
term period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 706 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the TAF
period with light to moderate northeasterly winds. A bit of a sea
breeze is expected at KECP Friday afternoon. While an isolated
shower or thunderstorm may develop along the sea breeze Friday
afternoon, confidence in when and where was too low to include in
any of the TAF sites at this time as rain chances are currently
less than 20 percent.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Generally light winds are expected through the weekend outside of
maritime convection with dominant pre-weekend wave periods of 6 to 7
seconds. By Monday, cautionary easterly flow develops and likely
increases to or near advisory levels late Tuesday as the pressure
gradient tightens across the Gulf. Seas should also build from
southwest to northeast during that time. The persistence of tropical
moisture keeps thunderstorms in the forecast as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Hot temperatures defined by triple-digit heat indices will be the
main story through the weekend. High afternoon dispersions are
forecast Friday and Sunday afternoon. Northeast winds gradually
turn out of the southeast by Sunday with daily afternoon
seabreezes inducing an onshore component from the coast. A
prevailing east wind develops early next week. Tomorrow appears
mostly dry, but isolated showers/thunderstorms are forecast
along/south of the I-10 corridor Saturday with higher rain chances
on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

No significant flooding concerns are anticipated the next several
days. Localized runoff issues are possible from strong and/or slow-
moving thunderstorms, especially in urban, low-lying, and poor-
drainage areas. Riverine prospects look good at this time with
only the Suwannee River - Manatee Springs forecast to drop below
action stage late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  97  74  98 /  10  10   0  30
Panama City   75  94  77  92 /  10  20   0  20
Dothan        72  96  74  99 /   0  10   0  20
Albany        71  95  74 100 /   0  10   0  20
Valdosta      71  95  73 101 /  10  10   0  30
Cross City    71  96  72  98 /  20  40  10  40
Apalachicola  76  90  78  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Friday for
     FLZ108-112-114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...Reese
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...IG3
HYDROLOGY...IG3