780
FXUS62 KTAE 131807
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
207 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1107 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

No major changes to today`s forecast were required. The 12Z KTAE
sounding highlights an unseasonably moist airmass with
a Precipitable Water of 1.94". This value exceeds the 90th
percentile, per SPC sounding climatology. However, minimal forcing
for convection is expected today. The best chances for
showers/thunderstorms remain along the Emerald Coast where the
afternoon seabreeze and synoptic NE flow converge. Next in line is
the Nature Coast/SE Big Bend area. Any storms that develop are
likely to be slow-moving and capable of gusty winds, locally
heavy downpours, and frequent lightning. Outflow boundaries may
serve as a focus for additional cell development for locations
farther inland.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Upper level trough axis will be over the region this afternoon as
it slowly slides southeast with an upper level ridge axis
expected to be building south and east into tonight. At the
surface, an area of disturbed weather to our south will move off
the Florida coast as an area of weak low pressure slowly develops.
East and northeasterly flow around this weak disturbance, along
with relatively dry low to mid-level air, should keep rain
chances a little lower this afternoon. The best chances will
likely be confined to our Panhandle counties and the southeast Big
Bend where seabreeze convergence with the northeasterly low-level
flow will be maximized and POPs will be around 40 to 50%.
Coverage will be more isolated across central portions of the Big-
Bend near Tallahassee and across our AL/GA counties where deep-
layer moisture and the lack of any significant low-level
convergence will keep rain chances lower.

Enjoy the last day of "cooler" temperatures, with highs in the
mid 90s, because as we move into weekend conditions will warm up
and dry out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

The main story will be the heat for Friday and into the weekend.
As the upper level trough elongates and lifts northeast, an upper
level ridge will build into the southeast. With relatively light
winds, absent the seabreeze along the coast, expect mostly sunny
skies and very warm temperatures as the ridge and limited deep-
layer moisture supress most, if not all, shower and storm
development outside a few small showers along the seabreeze.

The limited deep-layer moisture should at least put a cap on the
heat indices and concerns for widespread dangerous heat, but with
heat indices around 100 to 105 across the area under sunny skies,
it won`t be a pleasant summer day and folks outside this weekend
should be very vigilant about staying hydrated and aware of the
signs of heat stress and heat exhaustion. Weekend temperatures
could be the hottest of the summer season so far.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 200 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Heat continues into Sunday as the upper level ridge slowly slides
east into the early part of the week. As the ridge slides east,
low-level flow will become easterly and southeasterly into next
week. This should bring an increase in low-level moisture and a
return to more summer-like rain chances, but the eventual position
of the upper level ridge will determine if better tropical
moisture can move in. The best rain chances in this pattern will
likely be across the Gulf and into our Florida counties with
lower, but not zero, rain chances across our AL/GA counties.

With low-level moisture beginning a comeback on Sunday, and the
ridge still having an influence on the sensible weather, Sunday
could be the hottest day of the forecast period heat index wise as
air temperatures remain fairly similar to Saturday. It`s possible
we`ll need heat advisories across much of the area on Sunday
depending on how forecasts evolve.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 142 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Cumulus field has developed over SE AL and most of the FL
counties with CU advancing towards SW GA from the northeast. The
best chances for showers and storms, some of which have already
started, will be over the western FL Panhandle. Added VCTS to TLH
TAF, but kept it out DHN since confidence was lower over SE AL.
Showers and storms that do develop, should taper off after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1107 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Offshore buoys were reporting northerly winds 10 kts or less with
seas around 2 ft and a dominant period of 7 seconds.

From CWF Synopsis...Generally light winds are expected through
the weekend outside of maritime convection with dominant wave
periods of 6 to 7 seconds. By Monday, cautionary easterly flow
develops and likely increases to or near advisory levels later
next week as the pressure gradient tightens across the Gulf. Seas
should also build from southwest to northeast during that time.
The persistence of tropical moisture keeps thunderstorms in the
forecast as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Mostly dry conditions are expected the next few days, especially
over the weekend. The only chances for isolated/scattered showers
and storms will be across the Panhandle and the southeast Big
Bend this afternoon and possibly again on Friday. Dispersions will
be on the higher end the next few days with dry and hot
conditions. Mixing heights will be well above 7,000 ft in the
peak of afternoon heating over the upcoming weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 200 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Mostly dry conditions are expected through the next 4 days with
only isolated/scattered showers and storms today and on Friday.
Rainfall amounts will not likely bring riverine issues but any
stalled storms, especially in urban environments, could bring
localized flooding. Little to no rain is expected over the weekend
and a more summerlike pattern sets up through next week as better
low-level moisture returns but rainfall amounts will not bring any
additional issues.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  97  74  99 /  10  10   0  20
Panama City   75  94  77  95 /  10  20   0  20
Dothan        73  97  74  99 /   0  10   0  10
Albany        70  97  73 100 /   0  10   0  10
Valdosta      70  97  73 100 /  10  10   0  20
Cross City    72  96  73  97 /  30  40  20  40
Apalachicola  76  89  78  90 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs