Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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301 FXUS62 KTAE 110123 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 923 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 920 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 While there were a couple strong to severe storms this evening, they never really got much farther south than a Dothan to Tifton line. Storms are also decaying rather quickly with only a couple lingering showers. Thus, have dropped rain chances by quite a bit given the recent trend. Temperatures were adjusted based on observational trends, but no significant changes to lows were made. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 With ample daytime heating in place, convection is beginning to fire in our northern most counties along a frontal boundary sagging south into our area. A marginal risk of severe storms is present this evening for areas along and north of I-10. Overall, convection is expected to generally be scattered and linger a bit this evening, perhaps a little longer in our SW Georgia counties. The biggest concerns with these storms will be strong gusty winds and hail. Highs today were well into the mid to upper 90s, noticeably above normal. Expect daytime temperatures tomorrow to be a few degrees cooler, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible east of Panama city, along I-10 and south of Valdosta. Overnight lows will generally range from the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Thursday) Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 From Tuesday night through Thursday, the upper trough that is currently over the Southern High Plains will move east, getting hung up over Florida as it gets boxed up by blocking subtropical highs to the west and east. At first on Wednesday, weak low-level northerly flow will keep the air mass on the drier side, confining higher rain chances to our Florida counties, and especially the southeast Big Bend where a more richly moist air mass will remain. By Thursday, very broad lowering of pressure over the southern or southwestern Gulf will initiate a low-mid level southeast flow. This will start to pump up more moisture and start an increasing trend on rain chances. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 The weekend pattern will transition more to a rex block, as the subtropical 500 mb high moves east across the Tennessee Valley, and the upper weakness settles south over the Gulf. In response, a broad inverted trough or surface low could develop over the southern or southwestern Gulf, deepening and strengthening the east-southeast flow. Moisture will surge in and PW values will rise to 2 inches or better. If a slow-moving band of rain can set up in confluent southeast flow, then there will be concern for flooding rains. Some global models and ensemble members point to very heavy rainfall amounts, well in excess of flash flood guidance. However, guidance is all over the place in where such a heavy band of rain spreads onshore next Sunday and Monday, ranging anywhere from Texas to Florida. For now, just know that there is potential for flooding rain somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast, but we still need more time to resolve whether that will be in our forecast area, or off to the west. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 712 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR conditions are expected for all TAF sites. TSRA remains north of DHN and ABY, and confidence is decreasing in storms reaching DHN. Still maintain a TEMPO for a couple hours for ABY as TSRA is closer. Otherwise, winds will become northwesterly later tonight into Tuesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A cold front will slip south through Alabama and Georgia this evening preceded by gentle to moderate westerlies over the waters. The front will struggle to get far into the Gulf on Tuesday morning before dissipating on Wednesday. East to southeast breezes will develop on Thursday and slowly freshen through Saturday, as a broad area of low pressure carves out over the southern or southwest Gulf. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening, mainly along and north of I- 10, Then again tomorrow afternoon along the panhandle and big bend areas. Slightly cooler temperatures and slightly lower RH values through at least mid week before an uptick in moisture is expected. No additional Fire Weather concerns at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 231 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Through Saturday, concerns will be confined to short-lived runoff issues beneath summer thunderstorms, due to intense instantaneous rainfall rates. Next Sunday and Monday, there is potential for a swath of heavy, flood-producing rain to spread northward off the Gulf, affecting somewhere along the northern Gulf Coast. The heavy rain is most likely to focus somewhere west of the Florida Panhandle, but there is a vocal minority of guidance members painting impressive rainfall amounts over our Florida counties. In other words, there is a low chance for significant rainfall amounts well in excess of flash flood guidance starting as soon as Sunday. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 74 94 73 94 / 20 30 20 50 Panama City 75 92 74 92 / 20 20 10 40 Dothan 70 90 68 92 / 20 10 0 30 Albany 70 91 69 93 / 30 10 0 30 Valdosta 72 92 72 93 / 30 30 20 50 Cross City 73 92 72 92 / 10 60 30 70 Apalachicola 78 89 76 89 / 10 30 30 50 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Humphreys SHORT TERM...Haner LONG TERM....Haner AVIATION...Young MARINE...Haner FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys HYDROLOGY...Haner