Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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349 FXUS62 KTAE 100529 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 129 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 932 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 No changes are needed to the forecast this evening. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 351 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A frontal system looks to approach the region from the north with southerly flow in place ahead of it. It looks to collide with the sea breeze as it moves north throughout the afternoon hours on Monday, providing ample low-level convergence. Models are still indicating a more of a pulse thunderstorm setup and not a well defined line that moves through. However, with ample forcing for ascent, showers and storms will be widespread in coverage. With MLCAPE greater than 2000 J/kg some storms may be sub-severe or marginally severe with strong gusty winds as the primary threat. Expect daytime highs generally in the mid to upper 90s with overnight lows in the mid 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 351 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 A weak frontal boundary will slide south as surface high pressure builds over the Ohio Valley / Great Lakes regions. Despite the gradual weakening of the boundary, interaction with the seabreeze will likely provide enough forcing to spark thunderstorms particularly across the FL Big Bend where PoPs range from 30-50%. Elsewhere, PoPs are generally less than 30% given drier mid-level air pushing into the region. Temperatures on Tuesday are once again expected to be quite warm with our FL counties pushing into the low to mid 90s. Our SE AL and SW GA counties will generally see temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s. Both Monday evening and Tuesday evening will see low temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 351 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Uncertainty still remains high regarding the possible heavy rain event this weekend. The upper level pattern on recent guidance would not be as favorable regarding deep moisture making its way into the northern Gulf, instead favoring the Peninsula and areas east. This is due to a slower moisture transport regime than what was previously shown across guidance and the upper trough moving somewhat faster, perhaps still forming a cutoff low, displacing the more robust moisture off to our east as previously mentioned. This upper level pattern would also advect drier mid- upper level air into the area via northeasterly flow. Additionally, new guidance suggests that Wednesday and Thursday could be drier than initially forecast given the slower moisture return resulting in this being more of a weekend event. Regardless, PWATs around 2-2.2" will be on tap and the seabreeze will likely be active each afternoon. The most robust moisture will be generally confined to the FL Big Bend extending to our southernmost tier of SW GA counties. This is reflected in the PoPs ranging from 60-80% each afternoon across the aforementioned areas beginning Wednesday lasting through the weekend. Coverage still remains questionable given the drier air aloft, though highest confidence for thunderstorm development remains across the aforementioned areas. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 128 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail this morning. For this afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop with the most likely areas to see storms around DHN and ABY. Gusty winds are possible with these storms. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail outside of storms. && .MARINE... Issued at 351 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Favorable boating conditions are expected to continue through the remainder of today and Monday with wave heights around 1 to 2 feet and light winds. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase tomorrow as a frontal boundary slides south and will remain elevated throughout the week with the arrival of tropical moisture. Beginning around midweek, wave heights will see an increase with cautionary conditions possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 351 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 High dispersions continue through tomorrow region-wide. Tropical moisture will begin to move into the region over the next few days with MinRH values continuing to increase. This will also lead to an increase in rain chances. There are currently no fire weather concerns. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 351 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 Dry weather is expected to continue through the remainder of today with no immediate hydro concerns. Tomorrow, a wet pattern will begin as a frontal boundary slides south followed by tropical moisture arriving over the Gulf. It remains quite uncertain how much rainfall will occur with this event at this time and is highly dependent on how long the moisture will linger over the region. Currently, a few rivers along the Suwannee remain in action stage and are expected to continue lowering over the next few days. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 97 73 92 72 / 30 40 40 20 Panama City 90 74 90 73 / 30 40 30 20 Dothan 92 70 89 68 / 50 30 10 10 Albany 94 70 90 69 / 50 30 10 10 Valdosta 95 72 92 71 / 40 50 30 20 Cross City 93 73 93 72 / 10 20 40 40 Apalachicola 89 77 88 75 / 10 30 30 30 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Oliver SHORT TERM...Worster LONG TERM....Worster AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Worster FIRE WEATHER...Oliver HYDROLOGY...Worster