783
FXUS62 KTAE 141852
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
252 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Hot and mostly dry weather expected through the weekend with
widespread 90s (isolated 100) and triple-digit heat indices forecast.

Warm and muggy weather prevails next week with daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms initially confined closer to the coast,
then having better coverage inland late in the period.

Hazardous marine conditions are likely to begin as soon as Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Surface high pressure will continue to hold over the region on
Saturday, with an upper level high building in from the west. This
will lead to an unseasonably warm day on Saturday with high
temperatures peaking in the mid to upper 90s, with some areas
topping out near 100. The Heat Index temperatures, the feels like
temperature, will be hot too and range from about 100-107
degrees. High pressure should suppress any shower or thunderstorm
development, but there`s a possibility the seabreeze might be able
to help develop a few isolated storms along the FL coast. Outside
of that, mainly dry weather is in store for the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday night through Sunday night)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

A strong mid-upper ridge gradually treks across the SE US into early
next week, thus keeping unseasonably hot weather in place. The
uptick in moisture via SE flow from the Bermuda High increases cloud
cover/rain chances and decreases our air temperatures to the 90s on
Sunday. However, the higher humidity compared to Saturday should
yield triple-digit heat indices ranging from about 101-106 degrees.
Although these values fall short of our local advisory criteria of
at least 108, sensitive groups are still vulnerable to such
conditions. Muggy overnight lows in the mid 70s won`t provide much
heat relief, but afternoon thunderstorms may, for which the best
potential is from roughly the I-10 corridor, southward.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The aforementioned ridge pivots NE, then anchors itself over the Mid-
Atlantic states with an extensive upstream upper trough setting up
across the Western US and a tropical disturbance likely brewing in
the Bay of Campeche to start the long-term period. This synoptic
pattern ushers a robust easterly flow regime as the regional
pressure gradient tightens in addition to a long-fetch "conveyor
belt" of tropical moisture surging towards the Northern Gulf Coast.

As a result, we are looking at a heterogeneous distribution of rain
chances from north to south for much of the coming week at this
time. The greatest potential at this time is along/south of the
coast where the greatest moisture is expected to reside, though
trends may change depending on how the atmosphere evolves. By
Thursday, higher PoPs are painted northward as deeper moisture
attempts to spread more inland off the Gulf while the Atlantic
seabreeze gets going.

While conditions will be warm and muggy, high temperatures trend
more to the low/mid 90s given the increased cloud cover. Low to mid
70s hold for overnight lows.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Fair weather cumulus has developed over the region this afternoon
and are accompanied with some breezier northeast winds. Expect
some gusts to 12-18kt gusts being possible over the next couple of
hours, with winds decreasing as we lose daytime heating and
sunlight. Then skies clear, leaving us with calm overnight
conditions. Tomorrow, high pressure should be taking control of
the forecast. This should help suppress shower and thunderstorm
development, though some of the CAMS try to have some popcorn
activity trying to develop. Confidence is too low to add any
mention in the TAF lines.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The prevalence of tropical moisture over the Gulf keeps daily
chances for thunderstorms in the forecast. Southeast winds generally
10 knots or less prevail through the weekend before becoming
easterly. By early next week, a tightening pressure gradient between
the Bermuda High and tropical disturbance over the Bay of Campeche
initially brings cautionary conditions to our waters with advisory
level and winds and seas likely on Tuesday, especially west of
Ochlockonee River.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

The main fire weather concerns through this coming Monday are high
dispersions across the region. Outside of that, there will also be
unseasonably hot temperatures over the weekend where highs peak in
the mid to upper 90s, perhaps even making it to 100 on Saturday.
Heat Index values, the feels like temperature, will range from 100
to 107 degrees. High pressure should keep us dry Saturday, with a
moisture surge returning Sunday and into early next week. This
should bring typical summertime afternoon showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Prospects for significant flooding over the next several days still
appear minimal. Mostly dry weather is forecast through tomorrow
before rain chances modestly increase on Sunday. Of course,
localized runoff issues are always possible from strong and/or slow-
moving thunderstorms, especially in urban/low-lying/poor-drainage
areas. The axis of greatest precipitation aims to remain just
offshore and focus more over the Northern Gulf coast next week. In
terms of rivers, all are below action stage.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   96  74  98  75 /   0   0  20  10
Panama City   95  76  94  77 /  10   0  20  20
Dothan        96  73  98  74 /   0   0  10  10
Albany        95  73  98  75 /   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      95  71  99  74 /  10   0  10  10
Cross City    97  71  97  73 /  30  20  30  20
Apalachicola  91  77  90  79 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     FLZ114-115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IG3
NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...IG3
LONG TERM....IG3
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...IG3
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...IG3