857
FXUS62 KTBW 050841
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
441 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...
Issued at 440 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Mostly clear skies in place this morning with temperatures in the
low to mid 70s and dewpoints in most areas, a bit more moist
compared to yesterday morning. Meanwhile, ridge of high pressure
is expected to start moving south today keeping light easterly
winds that will shift west in the afternoon. The sea breeze
shouldn`t experience much resistant, so it should make it further
inland where most of the convection is expected to develop.
Showers and storm led by outflow boundaries and the east coast sea
breeze then come back towards the coast and move offshore through
the evening.

On Thursday, a shortwave aloft approaches the region, as area of
high pressure builds south of the area. The upper level energy
associated with this system combined with the lift provided by the
afternoon sea breeze, and the ample moisture available may support
stronger storms. Winds should become west to southwest during
this time, which supports most of the convection over interior
areas and east. Therefore, if stronger storms do develop, the main
areas of concern would be eastern Polk Co. and Highlands Co.
These storms would have the potential to produce damaging winds
and maybe hail given the 500mb temps late on Thursday.

Afternoon highs climb into the mid to upper 90s, which combined
with the increase in moisture could result in near advisory levels
heat through the period. Residents and visitors should keep this
in mind if making plans outdoors...stay hydrated and take breaks
from the sun.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI-TUE)...
Issued at 440 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The aforementioned boundary should move out of the area on Friday
and another weak boundary quickly slide across the area on
Saturday. Behind it, model guidance bring drier air that may not
last very long as another system approaches the state. If this
materializes, a significant amount of moisture could be pulled
into the Peninsul supporting widespread rainfall through the end
of the forecast period. Temperatures remain in the mid to upper
90s with heat indices near or in the triple digits into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 139 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR conditions expected at least through midday across terminals.
Then, a few storms could develop as the sea breeze moves inland
therefore PROB30s were added after 17Z, but most of the activity
should develop inland and be push back towards coastal TAF sites
after around 20Z. The highest chances are for areas inland as well
as along and south of the I-4, so TEMPO groups were added to
PGD/FMY/RSW. MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities are possible
where storms develop. East to southeasterly winds prevail before
shifting west in the afternoon. Convection should push offshore
during the evening hours with VFR conditions prevailing
thereafter.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 401 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

High pressure to the north is expected to start shifting south
today. Easterly winds become onshore behind the afternoon sea
breeze. Showers and storms should develop over the land each
afternoon/evening, drifting into the Gulf each day during the late
evening and early overnight hours. Then, a weak boundary
approaches the Gulf waters on Thursday which will shift winds
from the west into the weekend. As a result, showers could develop
along the coast early and push inland by the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 354 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Area of high pressure begins to gradually move south today as
disturbance approaches area through Friday. This should keep east to
southeasterly winds and fairly moist conditions in place across fire
districts. Showers and storms are expected to develop along the sea
breeze becoming widespread over the interior and pushing back
towards the coast in the evening. Minimum humidities to around 40
percent this afternoon with the lowest values expected inland. Behind
the boundary winds shift from the west and moisture remains high.
This should push rain chances away from the coast to interior
locations into the weekend. Drier conditions are possible later in
the period. Light winds and mostly above critical values RHs should
keep fire weather concerns out of the area at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  79  93  79 /  40  30  50  30
FMY  95  77  95  77 /  50  40  60  20
GIF  97  75  98  75 /  50  30  60  20
SRQ  93  78  93  78 /  40  30  50  20
BKV  97  71  95  72 /  40  20  40  20
SPG  93  82  92  81 /  40  30  40  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Delerme
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Close