Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
779 FXUS62 KTBW 310556 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 156 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 149 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR conditions are expected through most of the period with east to southeasterly winds prevailing. Chances for showers and storms increase during the afternoon, as the sea breeze attemopts to move inland. There is uncertainty on whether or not storms will make it to LAL, but VCTS was left in the forecast to show the potential. Breezy winds also increase in the afternoon before shifting from the east ino the eveningand diminish overnight. && .UPDATE... Issued at 835 PM EDT Thu May 30 2024 After record setting heat for six of our climate sites this afternoon, including 101 degrees at Punta Gorda (KPGD), storms erupted over areas primarily south of I-4 and particularly in Charlotte and Lee counties, with wind gusts in excess of 50 mph along with hail just under an inch in diameter. Radar derived rainfall estimates across those counties was generally in the 1-3 inch range, with a few gauges reporting 2-3 inches, which likely produced ponding on roadways and poor drainage or low lying areas. Fortunately that activity has waned over the last hour or so although a few showers and storms have re-fired during that time over southern Polk and northern Hardee counties as a northward propagating boundary from the earlier SWFL convection intersected the east coast sea breeze moving westward across the area. An overall diminishing trend should continue with the loss of daytime heating, with easterly winds settling in for the overnight period with overnight lows in the mid 60s north and upper 60s to mid 70s central and south. Another hot day on tap for Friday although perhaps a degree or two cooler for most locations outside of SWFL, where highs in the mid to upper 90s remain likely, with lower to mid 90s elsewhere. Afternoon and evening showers and storms will once again be likely, with highest chances south of I-4. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 94 75 94 74 / 40 10 10 10 FMY 95 73 94 73 / 60 20 20 10 GIF 94 71 92 69 / 40 10 10 0 SRQ 95 73 97 72 / 40 20 20 10 BKV 94 67 94 65 / 30 10 10 0 SPG 93 78 94 77 / 40 20 10 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Delerme/Hurt DECISION SUPPORT... RDavis