571
FXUS62 KTBW 201910
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
310 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Weakening boundary across the area has pretty much washed out with
west to northwest flow across all but the northern Nature Coast
where flow is northeasterly. A few showers and possibly a
thunderstorm remains possible over the southern interior into this
evening where moisture is higher, otherwise a couple of sprinkles
will be possible across the Nature Coast as the northeast flow
gradually spreads southward. These northeast winds will spread
south across the entire area overnight with fair dry weather
prevailing. On Tuesday, the northeast flow will continue, but
light enough that we`ll see the west coast sea breeze develop and
move inland. Should be enough moisture to allow for some scattered
showers and possibly a thunderstorm to develop during the
afternoon and evening over the interior and then further west
closer to the Interstate 75 corridor as the east and west coast
sea breezes collide.

For the remainder of the work week, high pressure will build over
the area with warming temperatures and rather dry conditions
anticipated. Only exception may be over the southern interior and
southwest Florida where just enough moisture could combine with
daytime heating and the sea breezes to allow a few afternoon and
evening showers and possibly a thunderstorm each day. High
temperatures will climb into the mid 90s away from the coast each
day with the sea breeze keeping coastal location in the upper 80s
to near 90. Overnight lows will be a little lower then they have
been recently thanks to the drier air, but still close to normal
for mid to late May.

Over the weekend, an upper level shortwave is expected to move
across the southeast U.S. suppressing the ridging and allowing
some deeper moisture to spread across the entire area. However,
this will also mean that the low level flow will shift to a more
south to southwest direction so that the highest rain chances will
be over the interior and eastern half of the Florida peninsula.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period with west to
northwest winds diminishing and shifting to northeast early
tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Weak high pressure gradually builds over the waters during the
week with east to southeast flow setting up, except shifting to
onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon. No headlines are
expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

Some drier air
will filter into the area during the week with highest rain chances,
albeit less than 30 percent, over southern interior and southwest
Florida by midweek. Relative humidity values will remain above
critical levels with winds 15 mph or less. Higher dispersions will be
possible over the next few afternoons over inland areas, otherwise
no concerns are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  89  74  93 /   0  30  20  10
FMY  72  94  73  95 /  10  20  30  40
GIF  69  89  71  93 /  10  30   0  10
SRQ  70  91  72  94 /  10  30  30  10
BKV  64  91  67  95 /   0  20  10  10
SPG  75  90  78  93 /  10  30  20  10

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

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