900
FXUS62 KTBW 161108
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
708 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Areas of MVFR cigs will continue to be possible for all sites
through the morning, with a few showers possible over KPGD, KFMY,
and KRSW as well. VFR is then expected for all sites through the
rest of the day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

The weak cool front will settle across the southern portions of the
area today with a few showers and thunderstorms possible south of
it across the southern interior and southwest Florida. West to
northwest winds will bring some drier air into the inland portions
of the Nature Coast south into central parts of the Florida
peninsula with mostly sunny skies returning to these areas by
afternoon. Tonight the boundary begins to lift back north as the
next storm system develops over the south central states. The
boundary moves back north of the area Friday with winds shifting
back to south to southwest and moisture spreading back across the
area. Hi-res models are indicating that a weakening MCS will move
across the northern gulf coast and into the Nature Coast Friday
morning, basically along the frontal boundary and have included a
slight chance of precipitation at this time in this area.
Otherwise, we could see a few sprinkles as the boundary lifts
north. The south to southwest flow behind the boundary will drive
the west coast sea breeze well inland on Friday with an isolated
shower possible over the interior during the afternoon and early
evening. For Saturday the storm system will move into the eastern
U.S. with south to southwest flow persisting across the region.
Enough moisture will be in place for a few showers and
thunderstorms, but the flow will once again favor the interior
and eastern half of the Florida peninsula for the highest rain
chances. Saturday night into Sunday the cool front associated with
the storm system will move into north Florida with moist southwest
flow across the area. This will lead to increasing rain chances
for the northern waters and Nature Coast Saturday night into
Sunday with chances diminishing as you move further south. The
boundary is expected to drift slowly south into the central
peninsula Sunday night and then reach south Florida Monday night.
The chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue along and
south of this boundary during this time, while behind it
northwesterly flow will bring drier air back into the area for
early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Winds will shift to west and then northwest through today as the
weak frontal boundary settles across the southern waters. Winds will
then turn back to the southwest as the boundary lifts north on
Friday, with increasing showers and thunderstorms chances for the
weekend as the next storm system moves across the eastern U.S.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 420 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Relative humidity values could drop to near critical levels over the
central interior this afternoon, otherwise relative humidity values
will remain above critical thresholds. No Red Flag conditions are
expected though as winds and ERCs remain below thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  75  91  79 /  10  10  10   0
FMY  90  77  93  77 /  40  10  10   0
GIF  92  70  95  75 /  10   0  10   0
SRQ  88  75  91  77 /  30  10  10   0
BKV  90  65  93  71 /   0   0  20   0
SPG  88  78  89  81 /  10  10  10   0

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

Aviation...05/Carlisle
Previous...Close