Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
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258 FXUS62 KTBW 141329 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 929 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 925 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 A narrow line of storms is moving across north FL and portions of the Nature Coast, which has fortunately remained sub-severe this morning so far despite the favorable dynamics in place as well as moderate instability. Meanwhile, there is a larger cluster of storms offshore that has been moving ENE across the Gulf waters and recent satellite imagery shows cloud tops colder than -60C associated with this activity. Thus, this next wave of convection offshore may pose another severe risk but there remains uncertainty with how this cluster holds together as it gets closer to the coast. Given the favorable environment in place, will maintain the ongoing tornado watch for our northern counties and adjacent nearshore waters but will continue to keep a close watch on the convection offshore as it continues to approach our area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 An active weather pattern continues as multiple rounds of showers and storms move through the area. Another MCS will slide across the northern Gulf and will likely be impacting our northern waters by morning. Current models are keeping the bulk of the convection with this round of storms mainly north of I4. However with the current dynamic setup, some storms could be severe with hail, damaging winds and a possible tornado. SPC currently has areas south to Sarasota county in a slight risk with the remaining areas of the CWA in a marginal risk. Meanwhile as the MCS moves through today, an upper level trough continues to move across the Mississippi valley. The cold front associated with the trough will bring another round of showers and storms to our area beginning tonight and into tomorrow. Once again with increased instability, 500mb temps around -9/-10C, and a strong westerly flow, severe storms could be possible. Thus SPC, has placed the middle of the peninsula in a marginal risk. Primary threats will be hail and damaging winds. Though ridging builds back over the area by the end of the week, enough moisture will be available that, rain chances remain in the forecast. By the weekend another cold front approaches the area bringing another round of convection. Hopefully with the multiple rounds of rain and storms, everyone`s grass will once again be green. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 738 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Patchy MVFR CIGs this morning before mostly VFR conditions through the early afternoon hours, though flight conditions may deteriorate afterwards as a cluster of storms offshore approaches the area. There remains uncertainty with this activity and overall impacts but greatest precip chances will occur at Tampa Bay area terminals where VCTS has been added to KTPA/KPIE for possible restrictions. A lull in activity will occur tonight but another round of storms will move across the area Wednesday morning with additional restrictions possible. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact waters this morning. Primary concerns will be strong winds, isolated waterspouts, frequent lightning and heavy rain. Winds will also increase ahead of these lines calling for Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines for most areas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 233 AM EDT Tue May 14 2024 An increase in moisture has helped RH values remain above critical levels for most areas, however they could dip down for areas that are left out of the rainfall. Several rounds of showers/thunderstorms expected through Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 90 78 87 77 / 30 50 80 30 FMY 93 78 92 78 / 10 20 40 30 GIF 94 75 90 74 / 40 40 80 30 SRQ 91 78 89 76 / 20 40 70 40 BKV 93 72 87 68 / 50 60 90 20 SPG 89 80 86 78 / 30 50 70 40 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Giarratana DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle