320
FXUS62 KTBW 230816
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
416 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

High pressure ridges across the area through the weekend, with hot
and mostly dry conditions continuing. A few spotty showers and
storms will be possible late in the afternoon mainly inland and
south. The ridge axis shifts south for the weekend, with mainly
easterly winds and afternoon onshore seabreezes shifting to a
predominant west to southwest flow for the weekend. A cold front
then slowly moves through the area Tuesday through Wednesday, with
some scattered showers and storms possible with it. Temperatures
a couple of degrees cooler with the clouds and rain for Tuesday
and Wednesday, otherwise hot, with some record highs possible as
temperatures climb into the upper 80s inland over the next few
days.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Another hot and dry day, with easterly flow to start the morning,
becoming onshore W/NW in the afternoon up to around 12kts, then
becoming light and variable after 02Z. VFR conditions expected
through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

High pressure will ridge across the coastal waters through the
period, with E/SE flow turning onshore near the coast each day
through the end of the week. The ridge axis then shifts to the
south across south FL, keeping a more SW/W flow in place across
the waters for the weekend and into early next week. Next
significant chance for rain will be Tuesday into Wednesday with a
weakening cold front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

Dry and hot conditions will continue through the weekend, with a
few spotty showers and storms possible later in the afternoon
mainly south and inland. This afternoon will allow for a couple
of hours of critical humidities inland, but no headlines are
required with winds below 15mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  93  75  92  76 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  95  73  94  76 /  10  20  10   0
GIF  95  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  92  73  92  75 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  95  67  94  67 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  91  77  91  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt